Commodity Price Volatility and Fiscal Balance in Commodity-Exporting Countries

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran.

Abstract

Fiscal balance serves as a key indicator of the effectiveness of fiscal policy, making it a fundamental instrument for governments in pursuing developmental goals and ensuring macroeconomic stability. This role becomes even more critical in commodity-exporting countries, where fiscal outcomes are highly sensitive to commodity price fluctuations, amplifying the need for prudent and countercyclical fiscal management. Commodity price volatility is closely linked to the real sector of a country's economy and can directly and indirectly impact fiscal balance through changes in income and expenditures. Given the importance of this issue, this study examines the effect of Commodity Price volatility on the fiscal balance of selected commodity-exporting countries from 2004 to 2021. The relationships between the variables are estimated using the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) technique. The empirical findings reveal a negative and significant relationship between the volatilities of the Commodity Price volatility and the fiscal balance of commodity-exporting countries in the short-run. However, the long-run effect is positive and significant. Moreover, the results show that inflation's effect on fiscal balance is positive in the short run but becomes negative in the long run. Additionally, the unemployment rate has a negative and significant long-run impact on fiscal balance, while its short-run effect is negative but statistically insignificant. Through applying the Panel Vector Error Correction Model (P-VECM), a bidirectional short-run causality was confirmed between Commodity Price Volatility and Fiscal balance, while in the long run, the results indicate a unidirectional causal flow from commodity price volatility to fiscal balance.

Keywords

Main Subjects

Article Title [Persian]

نوسانات قیمت کامودیتی و تراز مالی در کشورهای صادرکننده کامودیتی

Authors [Persian]

  • مهدیه رضاقلی زاده
  • مجید آقایی
  • مهرداد زاغی ساروکلایی
دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه مازندران، مازندران، ایران.
Abstract [Persian]

تراز مالی به عنوان یکی از شاخص های کلیدی اثربخشی سیاست مالی، از ابزارهای بنیادین دولت ها در پیشبرد اهداف توسعه ای و تثبیت اقتصاد کلان محسوب می شود. این نقش در کشورهای صادرکننده کامودیتی اهمیت بیشتری پیدا می‌کند، زیرا تبعات مالی در این کشورها به‌شدت تحت تأثیر تلاطمات قیمت کامودیتی ها قرار دارد، که لزوم مدیریت مالی هوشمندانه و ضدچرخه‌ای را تقویت می‌کند. نوسانات قیمت کامودیتی ها به‌طور مستقیم و غیرمستقیم از طریق تغییرات در درآمدها و هزینه‌ها می‌تواند بر تراز مالی تأثیر بگذارد. با توجه به اهمیت این موضوع، مطالعه حاضر تأثیر نوسانات قیمت کامودیتی بر تراز مالی کشورهای صادرکننده کامودیتی را در بازه زمانی 2004 تا 2021 بررسی می‌کند. روابط بین متغیرها با استفاده از تکنیک میانگین گروهی تلفیقی (PMG) برآورد شده است. یافته‌های تجربی نشان می‌دهند که در کوتاه‌مدت، رابطه‌ای منفی و معنادار بین نوسانات قیمت کامودیتی و تراز مالی کشورهای صادرکننده کامودیتی وجود دارد. اما در بلندمدت، این رابطه مثبت و معنادار است. علاوه بر این، نتایج نشان می‌دهند که تأثیر تورم بر تراز مالی در کوتاه‌مدت مثبت است، اما در بلندمدت منفی می‌شود. همچنین، نرخ بیکاری تأثیر منفی و معناداری در بلندمدت بر تراز مالی دارد، درحالی که تأثیر آن در کوتاه‌مدت منفی اما از نظر آماری معنادار نیست. با استفاده از مدل تصحیح خطای برداری تابلویی (P-VECM)، علایم علیت کوتاه‌مدت دوجانبه بین نوسانات قیمت کامودیتی ها و تراز مالی تأیید شده است، درحالی که در بلندمدت، نتایج نشان می‌دهند که جریان علیتی یک‌طرفه از نوسانات قیمت کامودیتی ها به تراز مالی وجود دارد.

Keywords [Persian]

  • نوسانات قیمت کامودیتی
  • تراز مالی
  • کشورهای صادرکننده
  • مدل میانگین‌ گروهی تلفیقی (PMG)

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History

  • Receive Date: 27 May 2025
  • Revise Date: 06 July 2025
  • Accept Date: 08 July 2025

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