Analyzing the Nonlinear Relationship Between Financial Development and Economic Growth in Iran: A Combined Approach Using Principal Component Analysis and Copula Models

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Department of Economics, Payame Noor University (PNU), Tehran, Iran.

2 Department of Economics, Hakim Sabzerari university, Sabzevar, Iran.

Abstract

The relationship between financial development and economic growth is one of the most debated and significant topics in economic literature. This study examines the Iranian economy from 1990 to 2023 by constructing a composite financial development index, utilizing indicators such as the ratio of Credit to the private sector and broad money (M2) to gross domestic product (GDP). Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was applied to construct the composite index, and copula modeling was used to investigate the nonlinear relationships between variables. Additionally, Kendall, Spearman, and Pearson correlation coefficients were calculated to assess the strength and direction of the relationships. The results indicate no strong or statistically significant relationship between financial development and economic growth in Iran. The weak correlations and findings from the copula model suggest a lack of structural dependence between the two variables. These findings suggest that financial resources have not been effectively allocated to productive sectors, and financial development has not contributed significantly to economic growth. The results underscore the need for structural reforms, efficient resource allocation, and the strategic direction of liquidity in the economy.ns and findings from the copula model suggest a lack of structural dependence between the two variables. These findings suggest that financial resources have not been effectively allocated to productive sectors, and financial development has not contributed significantly to economic growth. The results underscore the need for structural reforms, efficient resource allocation, and the strategic direction of liquidity in the economy

Keywords

Main Subjects

Article Title [Persian]

تحلیل رابطه غیرخطی بین توسعه مالی و رشد اقتصادی در ایران: رویکردی ترکیبی با استفاده از تحلیل مؤلفه‌های اصلی و مدل‌های کاپولا

Authors [Persian]

  • سعید کیان پور 1
  • سید احسان علوی 2
1 گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران.
2 گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه حکیم سبزواری، سبزوار، ایران.
Abstract [Persian]

رابطه بین توسعه مالی و رشد اقتصادی یکی از بحث‌برانگیزترین و مهم‌ترین مباحث در ادبیات اقتصادی است. این مطالعه با ساخت یک شاخص توسعه مالی ترکیبی، با استفاده از شاخص‌هایی مانند نسبت اعتبار به بخش خصوصی و پول گسترده (M2) به تولید ناخالص داخلی (GDP)، اقتصاد ایران را از سال ۱۹۹۰ تا ۲۰۲۳ بررسی می‌کند. برای ساخت شاخص ترکیبی از تحلیل مؤلفه‌های اصلی (PCA) و برای بررسی روابط غیرخطی بین متغیرها از مدل‌سازی کاپولا استفاده شد. علاوه بر این، ضرایب همبستگی کندال، اسپیرمن و پیرسون برای ارزیابی قدرت و جهت روابط محاسبه شدند. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که هیچ رابطه قوی یا آماری معنی‌داری بین توسعه مالی و رشد اقتصادی در ایران وجود ندارد. همبستگی‌های ضعیف و یافته‌های حاصل از مدل کاپولا نشان‌دهنده عدم وابستگی ساختاری بین دو متغیر است. این یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد که منابع مالی به طور مؤثر به بخش‌های تولیدی تخصیص نیافته‌اند و توسعه مالی سهم قابل توجهی در رشد اقتصادی نداشته است. نتایج بر نیاز به اصلاحات ساختاری، تخصیص کارآمد منابع و جهت‌گیری استراتژیک نقدینگی در اقتصاد تأکید می‌کند. همبستگی‌های ضعیف و یافته‌های حاصل از مدل کاپولا نشان‌دهنده عدم وابستگی ساختاری بین دو متغیر است. این یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد که منابع مالی به طور مؤثر به بخش‌های تولیدی تخصیص نیافته‌اند و توسعه مالی سهم قابل توجهی در رشد اقتصادی نداشته است. نتایج بر نیاز به اصلاحات ساختاری، تخصیص کارآمد منابع و جهت‌گیری استراتژیک نقدینگی در اقتصاد تأکید می‌کند.

Keywords [Persian]

  • توسعه مالی
  • رشد اقتصادی
  • تحلیل مؤلفه‌های اصلی
  • مدل‌های کوپولا

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History

  • Receive Date: 03 June 2025
  • Revise Date: 15 August 2025
  • Accept Date: 17 August 2025

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