An Analysis of Macroeconomic Responses to Energy Price Reforms along Iran’s Decarbonization Path: A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Modeling Approach

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Faculty of Management and Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran.

2 Faculty of Mathematics and Computer Science, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran.

Abstract

This study examines the economic and environmental impacts of aligning the domestic prices of natural gas, fossil fuels, and renewable electricity in Iran with international standards. Using the dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, a comprehensive assessment of the impact of energy price reforms on economic growth, trade balance, welfare, relative prices and carbon emissions is provided. Given the lack of CGE model-based studies in the field of energy policy in Iran, this research fills the existing gap by simultaneously examining the economic and environmental impacts of energy price reforms. In this research, two distinct policy scenarios have been simulated over different time horizons and in various sectors to provide precise insights into sectoral balances and long-term policy outcomes. The results emphasize the necessity of transitioning to a sustainable energy system, a transition that requires extensive investments in renewable energy infrastructure (especially solar and wind) with targeted subsidies and financial incentives. Complementary measures include improving energy efficiency in high-consumption sectors through low-consumption technologies and modernizing the agricultural sector using clean energy to reduce dependence on fossil fuels and decrease greenhouse gas emissions. Implementing these strategies can lead to reduced energy price volatility, increased economic resilience, and achieving sustainable growth in Iran.

Keywords

Main Subjects

Article Title [Persian]

تحلیل پاسخ متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی به اصلاحات قیمتی انرژی در مسیر کربن زدایی ایران: رهیافت مدل های تعادل عمومی قابل محاسبه

Authors [Persian]

  • مهدیس السادات جلائی اسفندآبادی 1
  • زین‌العابدین صادقی 1
  • سیدعبدالمجید جلائی اسفندآبادی 1
  • مهدی نجاتی 1
  • محمد علی یعقوبی 2
1 دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان،کرمان،ایران.
2 دانشکده ریاضی و کامپیوتر، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران.
Abstract [Persian]

این مطالعه به بررسی اثرات اقتصادی و زیست‌محیطی واقعی کردن قیمت‌های داخلی گاز طبیعی، سوخت‌های فسیلی و برق تجدیدپذیر ایران با استانداردهای بین‌المللی می‌پردازد. با استفاده از مدل تعادل عمومی محاسبه‌پذیر پویا (CGE)، ارزیابی جامعی از تأثیر اصلاح قیمت انرژی بر رشد اقتصادی، تراز تجاری، رفاه، قیمت های نسبی و انتشار کربن ارائه می‌شود. با توجه به کمبود مطالعات مبتنی بر مدل CGE در حوزه سیاست‌گذاری انرژی در ایران، این پژوهش خلأ موجود را با بررسی هم‌زمان پیامدهای اقتصادی و زیست‌محیطی اصلاحات قیمتی انرژی، تکمیل می‌کند.در این تحقیق، دو سناریوی سیاستی متمایز در افق‌های زمانی مختلف و در بخش‌های گوناگون شبیه‌سازی شده‌اند تا بینش‌هایی دقیق از موازنه‌های بخش ها و پیامدهای بلندمدت سیاستی ارائه شود. نتایج بر لزوم گذار به یک نظام انرژی پایدار تأکید دارد، گذاری که مستلزم سرمایه‌گذاری‌های گسترده در زیرساخت برق تجدیدپذیر (به‌ویژه انرژی خورشیدی و بادی) با حمایت یارانه‌ای و مشوق‌های مالی هدفمند است. اقدامات مکمل شامل ارتقاء بهره‌وری انرژی در بخش‌های پرمصرف از طریق فناوری‌های کم‌مصرف و نیز نوسازی بخش کشاورزی با استفاده از انرژی پاک جهت کاهش وابستگی به سوخت‌های فسیلی و کاهش انتشار گازهای گلخانه‌ای می‌باشند.اجرای این راهکارها می‌تواند موجب کاهش نوسانات قیمتی انرژی، افزایش تاب‌آوری اقتصادی و دستیابی به رشد پایدار در ایران شود.

Keywords [Persian]

  • کربن زدایی
  • تعادل عمومی قابل محاسبه
  • خالص تراز بازرگانی
  • رفاه اقتصادی

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History

  • Receive Date: 10 June 2025
  • Revise Date: 27 August 2025
  • Accept Date: 28 August 2025

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