Economic Development's Influence on Financial Structure of Iran: New Structural Financial Economics View

Document Type : Research Paper

Author

Department of Economics, Damghan University, Damghan, Iran.

Abstract

This study investigates the asymmetric influence of economic development on the financial structure of Iran through the framework of New Structural Financial Economics (NSFE). Using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model and data for 1991–2023, economic development is measured by real GDP per capita and decomposed into positive and negative variations to capture short-run and long-run dynamics. The findings reveal indicator-specific and horizon-dependent asymmetries. When financial structure is measured by the relative size of capital markets to the banking sector (FSS), strong long-run asymmetry is observed: negative income shocks exert substantially larger adverse effects than positive shocks, underscoring the vulnerability of market size to downturns. Conversely, when financial structure is measured by market activity (FSA), the asymmetry emerges in the short run: positive shocks stimulate trading and participation, while negative shocks trigger disproportionately larger declines in activity, reflecting the volatility of equity markets. Control variables such as inflation, industrial value added, and trade openness, as well as dummy variables derived from Bai–Perron structural break tests further enrich the analysis. Overall, the results highlight that financial structure in Iran is highly sensitive to contractions in economic development, but the timing and channel of asymmetry differ across measures. This evidence underscores the fragility of market development and suggests that sustainable financial deepening requires policies that stabilize equity markets and reduce the dominance of banks, particularly during adverse economic conditions.

Keywords

Main Subjects

Article Title [Persian]

بررسی تاثیر توسعه اقتصادی بر ساختار مالی اقتصاد ایران: دیدگاه اقتصاد مالی ساختارگرایی جدید

Author [Persian]

  • سید روح اله احمدی حاجی آبادی
گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه دامغان، دامغان، ایران.
Abstract [Persian]

مطالعه حاضر به بررسی تأثیر نامتقارن توسعه اقتصادی بر ساختار مالی اقتصاد ایران از طریق چارچوب اقتصاد مالی ساختارگرایی جدید (NSFE) می‌پردازد. با استفاده از مدل غیرخطی NARDL و داده‌های دوره 2023–1991، توسعه اقتصادی با تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه واقعی اندازه‌گیری و به اجزای مثبت و منفی تفکیک شده تا پویایی‌های کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت بررسی شود. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که نوع شاخص ساختار مالی و افق زمانی تحلیل، نقش تعیین‌کننده‌ای در بروز نامتقارنی دارند. زمانی که ساختار مالی با نسبت اندازه بازار سرمایه به بخش بانکی اندازه‌گیری می‌شود، در بلندمدت شوک‌های منفی اقتصادی تأثیر منفی بسیار شدیدتری نسبت به شوک‌های مثبت دارند و آسیب‌پذیری بازار سرمایه در برابر رکود را نشان می‌دهند. در مقابل، زمانی که ساختار مالی با فعالیت بازار سنجیده می‌شود، نامتقارنی در کوتاه‌مدت ظاهر می‌شود؛ به‌طوری‌که شوک‌های مثبت موجب افزایش مشارکت و معاملات می‌شوند، اما شوک‌های منفی افت شدیدتری در فعالیت بازار ایجاد می‌کنند که بیانگر نوسان‌پذیری بالای بازارهای سهام است. متغیرهای کنترلی مانند تورم، ارزش افزوده صنعتی، درجه باز بودن اقتصاد و متغیرهای مجازی حاصل از آزمون شکست ساختاری Bai–Perron نیز در تحلیل لحاظ شده‌اند. در مجموع، یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهند که ساختار مالی ایران به‌ویژه در مواجهه با کاهش توسعه اقتصادی بسیار حساس است و برای تعمیق پایدار بخش مالی، سیاست‌هایی لازم است که بازارهای سهام را تثبیت کرده و وابستگی به بانک‌ها را در شرایط نامطلوب اقتصادی کاهش دهند.

Keywords [Persian]

  • توسعه اقتصادی
  • ساختار مالی
  • اقتصاد مالی ساختارگرایی جدید
  • NARDL

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History

  • Receive Date: 16 August 2025
  • Revise Date: 27 September 2025
  • Accept Date: 27 September 2025

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