Modeling the Economic Complexity of Iran and Other MENA Countries

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Faculty of Economics, Aras International Campus of the University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.

2 Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.

3 Faculty of Economics and Political Sciences, University of Shahid Beheshti, Tehran, Iran.

Abstract

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has been reliant on advanced nations for economic growth and development, despite the fact that they possess rich and valuable resources that could serve as primary drivers. This is due to deficiencies in technology, infrastructure, and other capabilities, which have resulted in an ever-widening gap between the two. The emigration of a highly skilled workforce to developed countries, in conjunction with the sale of raw, inexpensive natural resources, has effectively rendered these nations informal dependencies on more advanced economies, thereby maintaining them at a minimal subsistence level. Economists have devised a novel metric, the Economic Complexity Index (ECI), to account for the development disparities between countries. A sound and principled comprehension of the ECI is essential for the enhancement of the resilience of national economies and the attainment of sustainable development in an era characterized by technology and innovation. This study employs the ECI to evaluate the status of MENA countries from 2007 to 2023 and to identify the most significant factors that influence it. The results suggest that the index is positively and significantly influenced by key variables such as human capital, high-technology products, governance quality, . Conversely, the trade balance and migration has a negative impact.

Keywords

Main Subjects


Article Title [Persian]

مدل‌سازی پیچیدگی اقتصاد ایران و سایر کشورهای منا

Authors [Persian]

  • لیلا اخگری 1
  • قهرمان عبدلی 2
  • محسن مهرارا 2
  • رضا محسنی 3
1 دانشکده اقتصاد، پردیس بین المللی ارس دانشگاه تهران ، تهران ، ایران.
2 دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.
3 دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و سیاسی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.
Abstract [Persian]

منطقه خاورمیانه و شمال آفریقا (MENA) علی‌رغم برخورداری از منابع غنی و ارزشمند که می‌توانند به‌عنوان موتورهای اصلی رشد اقتصادی عمل کنند، برای رشد و توسعه اقتصادی خود به کشورهای پیشرفته وابسته بوده است. این وابستگی ناشی از کمبود در فناوری، زیرساخت‌ها و سایر ظرفیت‌ها است که در نتیجه آن شکاف میان این کشورها و اقتصادهای پیشرفته روزبه‌روز عمیق‌تر شده است. مهاجرت نیروی کار ماهر و تحصیل‌کرده به کشورهای توسعه‌یافته، همراه با فروش منابع طبیعی خام و ارزان‌قیمت، عملاً این کشورها را به نوعی وابستگی غیررسمی به اقتصادهای پیشرفته‌تر سوق داده و آن‌ها را در سطحی حداقلی از معیشت نگه داشته است. اقتصاددانان شاخصی نوین به نام «شاخص پیچیدگی اقتصادی» (Economic Complexity Index یا ECI) را برای سنجش تفاوت‌های توسعه میان کشورها ابداع کرده‌اند. درک صحیح و اصولی از این شاخص برای تقویت تاب‌آوری اقتصادهای ملی و دستیابی به توسعه پایدار در عصری که با فناوری و نوآوری تعریف می‌شود، ضروری است. این پژوهش از شاخص پیچیدگی اقتصادی برای ارزیابی وضعیت کشورهای منطقه MENA در بازه زمانی ۲۰۰۷ تا ۲۰۲۳ و شناسایی مهم‌ترین عوامل مؤثر بر آن استفاده می‌کند. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که شاخص مورد نظر به‌طور معنی‌داری تحت تأثیر مثبت متغیرهای کلیدی مانند سرمایه انسانی، محصولات فناوری پیشرفته، کیفیت حکمرانی قرار دارد؛ در حالی‌که تراز تجاری و مهاجرت تأثیری منفی بر آن دارد.

Keywords [Persian]

  • شاخص پیچیدگی اقتصاد
  • کشورهای منا
  • سرمایه انسانی
  • کالاهای های‌تک
  • کارایی دولت
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