Quantile Regression Analysis of Household Energy Demand in Iran Using Income-Expenditure National Survey (2016-2023); Heterogeneity and Key Characteristics

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Faculty of Administration sciences and Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran.

2 Department of Management, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran.

Abstract

Iran faces pressing challenges in managing household energy consumption, This study addresses whether Iranian household energy demand is heterogeneous across different levels of consumption for the first time and explores the influence of key household characteristics on energy demand. Using micro-level data from over 126,000 households from the Iranian Household Income and Expenditure Survey, we estimate separate demand equations for electricity and gas using quantile regression. This approach reveals that both price and income elasticities, as well as the effects of household characteristics variables, vary significantly across the expenditure distribution. For example, income elasticity for electricity rises from 0.25 in the lowest decile to 0.32 in the highest, while own-price elasticity (in absolute value) is stronger for lower-consuming households (–0.60 at the 1st decile) than for the highest (–0.50 at the 9th decile). For gas, higher education of the household head is linked to reduced consumption, especially among high-use households. The quantile regression estimates indicate that, controlling for other factors, rural households tend to have higher gas expenditures, while urban households tend to have higher electricity expenditures, reflecting underlying differences in energy use patterns. Our findings confirm that Iranian household energy demand is highly heterogeneous: household characteristics variables such as age, homeownership, household size, and dwelling area exert varying influences depending on expenditure level and energy type. These results underscore the importance of targeted, data-driven policies—such as differentiated pricing or subsidy reforms—that consider the diversity of household responses across the distribution.

Keywords

Main Subjects

Article Title [Persian]

تحلیل رگرسیون کوانتایل تقاضای انرژی خانوار در ایران با استفاده از پیمایش درآمد-هزینه (۲۰۱۶-۲۰۲۳): ناهمگنی و ویژگی‌های کلیدی

Authors [Persian]

  • شهرام معینی 1
  • مریم معینی 2
  • امیر محمد ریحانی بزرگ 1
1 دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم اداری، دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران.
2 گروه مدیریت، دانشگاه علوم پزشکی اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران.
Abstract [Persian]

ایران با چالش‌های مهمی در مدیریت مصرف انرژی خانوارها مواجه است و سیاست‌گذاران به دنبال اصلاحات مؤثر هستند. طراحی سیاست‌های موفق مستلزم درک رفتار خانوار و عوامل متنوع تأثیرگذار بر مصرف انرژی است. این مطالعه به بررسی ناهمگنی تقاضای انرژی خانوارهای ایرانی در سطوح مختلف مصرف و تأثیر ویژگی‌های خانوار بر تقاضای انرژی می‌پردازد. با استفاده از داده‌های تابلویی دوره ۲۰۱۶-۲۰۲۳ شامل بیش از ۲۱۲,۰۰۰ مشاهده از ۱۲۸,۴۳۲ خانوار برگرفته از پیمایش هزینه و درآمد خانوار ایران، معادلات تقاضای جداگانه برق و گاز را در مناطق شهری و روستایی با استفاده از رگرسیون چندکی اثرات تصادفی همبسته برآورد می‌کنیم. این رویکرد ناهمگنی غیرمشاهده‌شده خانوار را کنترل می‌کند و در عین حال نشان می‌دهد که کشش‌ها چگونه در توزیع مخارج متفاوت هستند. تحلیل ما ناهمگنی قابل‌توجهی را آشکار می‌سازد. برای برق شهری، کشش درآمدی از ۰/۱۴۷ تا ۰/۲۲۱ و کشش قیمتی از ۳۷۸/۰- تا ۵۶۰/۰- متغیر است. برق روستایی ناهمگنی به‌مراتب بیشتری را نشان می‌دهد، به‌طوری‌که کشش قیمتی از ۳۴۳/۰- به ۸۳۹/۰- در سراسر توزیع افزایش می‌یابد. برای گاز، کشش قیمتی نزدیک به واحد را در خانوارهای شهری (۱/۰۸۳- تا ۰/۹۵۶-) و روستایی (۱/۰۲۹- تا ۰/۹۷۸-) مستند می‌کنیم که حاکی از آن است افزایش قیمت، مصرف را به‌طور متناسب کاهش می‌دهد در حالی که مخارج بدون تغییر باقی می‌ماند. تحصیلات عالیه مصرف گاز را به‌ویژه در میان مصرف‌کنندگان بالا، کاهش می‌دهد، در حالی که مالکیت مسکن و مساحت واحد مسکونی اثرات مثبت قوی را نشان می‌دهند که در چندک‌های بالاتر افزایش می‌یابند. این یافته‌ها تأیید می‌کنند که تقاضای انرژی ایران بسیار ناهمگن است: ویژگی‌های خانوار بسته به سطح مخارج، موقعیت مکانی و نوع انرژی، تأثیرات متفاوتی اعمال می‌کنند. تغییرپذیری ۲/۴ برابری برق روستایی و عدم تقارن آشکار برق-گاز پیامدهای سیاستی مهمی دارند و بر ضرورت قیمت‌گذاری متمایز، تعرفه‌های خاص مکانی و اصلاحات ویژه‌انرژی به‌جای سیاست‌های یکنواخت تأکید می‌کنند.

Keywords [Persian]

  • تقاضای انرژی خانوار
  • رگرسیون کوانتایل
  • ناهمگنی
  • پیمایش ملی درآمد-هزینه
  • ایران

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History

  • Receive Date: 01 September 2025
  • Revise Date: 08 November 2025
  • Accept Date: 08 November 2025

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