Simulating The Effects of Emission Trading on The Structural Change in The Iran's Economy

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

Faculty of Management and Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran.

Abstract

Carbon emissions trading is one of the most important policy instruments for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, serving as an effective response to climate change, which has garnered global attention. Given the rising trend of carbon emissions in Iran and the country’s ranking as the sixth largest emitter of carbon dioxide globally, examining the impacts of implementing such a policy at both national and regional levels is highly important. In this study, utilizing a dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) model, the regional carbon market between Iran and selected trading partners (China, India, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates) was simulated for the 2050 horizon, and its impacts on Iran’s environmental performance, income, structural changes, and gross domestic product (GDP) were evaluated. Results showed that implementing the carbon market would lead to a 40.29% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions in Iran and a 3.33% decline in GDP. The output share of the fossil-fuel-based power sector, energy-intensive industries, and services decreased by 15.79%, 7.13%, and 2.65%, respectively, whereas electricity from renewable energy increased by 22.1%. Furthermore, due to lower emissions than the assigned cap, Iran could earn an income of $ 10,162.89 million by selling surplus emission permits. This income could be used to develop renewable electricity generation and support industries in financing innovation enhancement and productivity improvement. Therefore, based on the results, developing the carbon emissions market is recommended to optimize Iran's energy structure and that of its major trading partners.

Keywords

Main Subjects

Article Title [Persian]

شبیه سازی اثرات تجارت کربن بر تغییرات ساختاری در اقتصاد ایران

Authors [Persian]

  • مریم حسین زاده
  • علیرضا شکیبایی
  • مهدی نجاتی
  • سید عبدالمجید جلائی
دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران.
Abstract [Persian]

تجارت انتشار کربن یکی از مهم‌ترین ابزارهای سیاستی برای کاهش گازهای گلخانه‌ای و پاسخی مؤثر به چالش تغییرات اقلیمی است که در سطح جهانی مورد توجه قرار گرفته است. با توجه به روند رو به رشد انتشار کربن در ایران و جایگاه ششم این کشور در انتشار کربن دی اکسید در جهان، بررسی آثار اجرای چنین سیاستی در سطح ملی و منطقه‌ای از اهمیت بالایی برخوردار است. در این مطالعه، با بهره‌گیری از مدل تعادل عمومی قابل محاسبه پویا، بازار منطقه‌ای کربن میان ایران و برخی شرکای تجاری منتخب (چین، هند، ترکیه و امارات متحده عربی) برای افق زمانی 2050 شبیه‌سازی شد و اثرات آن بر عملکرد زیست‌محیطی، درآمد، تغییرات ساختاری و تولید ناخالص داخلی ایران ارزیابی گردید. نتایج نشان داد که اجرای بازار کربن به کاهش40/29 درصدی انتشار کربن دی اکسید در ایران منجر می‌شود؛ تولید ناخالص داخلی ایران 3/33درصد کاهش می یابد. سهم تولید بخش برق مبتنی بر سوخت‌های فسیلی15/79درصد، صنایع انرژی‌بر7/13 درصد و خدمات2/65 درصد کاهش یافت، در حالی که سهم برق تولیدی از انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر22/1درصد افزایش می‌یابد. همچنین ایران به دلیل انتشار کمتر از سقف تعیین‌شده قادر خواهد بود از طریق فروش مازاد مجوزهای انتشار، درآمدی معادل، 10162/89 میلیون دلار کسب کند. این درآمد می تواند برای توسعه تولید برق تجدیدپذیر و حمایت از صنایع در تامین مالی هزینه های ارتقا نوآوری و بهبود بهره وری به کارگرفته شود.بنابراین با توجه به نتایج، توسعه بازار انتشارکربن برای ارتقای بهینه سازی ساختار انرژی در ایران و شرکای عمده آن توصیه می شود.

Keywords [Persian]

  • تجارت انتشار کربن
  • انتشار کربن
  • مدل تعادل عمومی قابل محاسبه
  • تغییرات ساختاری
  • برق تولید شده از انرژی تجدید پذیر

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  • Receive Date: 07 September 2025
  • Revise Date: 10 November 2025
  • Accept Date: 10 November 2025

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