Modeling the Short-Run and Long-Run Effects of Water Stress on Food Security in Iran: ARDL Approach

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

Department of Economics, Fi.c., Islamic Azad University, Firoozkooh, Iran.

Abstract

Providing food and proper nutrition is a prerequisite for development and health of society and is an important factor in establishing conditions of stability, prosperity, peace and security. Therefore, among the priorities of development goals, achieving food security is of particular importance and has always been emphasized by policymakers. In this regard the main objective of this article is to examine the extent to which water stress affects food security in Iran. Using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model over the period 1990–2023, our results reveal that water stress has a significant and negative impact on food security. Among the primary challenges to food security, water stress notably reduces agricultural yields—especially in irrigated regions. Diminished supply resulting from water scarcity drives up prices and lowers economic access to food. It also restricts the production of diverse and nutritious crops, thereby compromising dietary quality. Further model estimates indicate that energy security and agricultural credit positively and significantly enhance food security, whereas income inequality (measured by the Gini coefficient) exerts a significant negative effect. The error-correction coefficient suggests that approximately 72% of per-period disequilibrium is corrected in the subsequent period, indicating a robust and speedily adjusting return toward long-run equilibrium.

Keywords: water stress, food security, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model

Keywords

Main Subjects

Iranian Journal of Economic Studies
Volume 14, Issue 2 - Serial Number 28
Issue in Progress
2025
Pages 501-526

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History

  • Receive Date: 07 November 2025
  • Revise Date: 27 December 2025
  • Accept Date: 29 December 2025

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