The transition toward a Circular Economy (CE) is increasingly recognized as a strategy for improving resource efficiency and strengthening sustainable trade. This study examines the dynamic relationship between CE development and Iran’s exports of traditional and modern goods using quarterly data for 2015Q1–2024Q4. A composite CE Index is constructed from recycling, resource productivity, renewable energy use, waste-management efficiency, and material reuse. Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) indices are calculated for traditional and modern goods. The analysis employs ARDL/UECM, and other Econometrics Models. The results show that the CE Index has a positive and statistically significant short-run effect on traditional exports, while its long-run coefficient is positive but statistically insignificant. For modern exports, the CE effect is insignificant but becomes positive and marginally significant in the long run. RCA is the strongest and most robust determinant of export performance in both sectors, with a substantially larger effect for modern goods. GDP generally supports export performance, whereas exchange-rate effects are more pronounced in the traditional-export model. Innovation has a positive but statistically insignificant effect on modern exports. Impulse-response results indicate strong persistence in both export categories and positive responses to CE shocks, although these responses should be interpreted cautiously. Overall, Iran’s export structure remains concentrated in traditional goods, while modern exports face competitiveness and technology constraints. The findings suggest complementing CE policies with comparative-advantage development, technological upgrading, and export diversification strategies.
Malekian, F. , Shakibai, A. , Horry, H. and Sadeghi, Z. (2026). Circular Economy and Comparative Trade Performance of Traditional and Modern Goods: Evidence from Iran. Iranian Journal of Economic Studies, (), -. doi: 10.22099/ijes.2026.56418.2124
MLA
Malekian, F. , , Shakibai, A. , , Horry, H. , and Sadeghi, Z. . "Circular Economy and Comparative Trade Performance of Traditional and Modern Goods: Evidence from Iran", Iranian Journal of Economic Studies, , , 2026, -. doi: 10.22099/ijes.2026.56418.2124
HARVARD
Malekian, F., Shakibai, A., Horry, H., Sadeghi, Z. (2026). 'Circular Economy and Comparative Trade Performance of Traditional and Modern Goods: Evidence from Iran', Iranian Journal of Economic Studies, (), pp. -. doi: 10.22099/ijes.2026.56418.2124
CHICAGO
F. Malekian , A. Shakibai , H. Horry and Z. Sadeghi, "Circular Economy and Comparative Trade Performance of Traditional and Modern Goods: Evidence from Iran," Iranian Journal of Economic Studies, (2026): -, doi: 10.22099/ijes.2026.56418.2124
VANCOUVER
Malekian, F., Shakibai, A., Horry, H., Sadeghi, Z. Circular Economy and Comparative Trade Performance of Traditional and Modern Goods: Evidence from Iran. Iranian Journal of Economic Studies, 2026; (): -. doi: 10.22099/ijes.2026.56418.2124
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