Other
Mohamamd Feghhi Kashani; Ahmadreza Mohebimajd
Abstract
Although theories over portfolio speculation have made remarkable progress so far, the performance of its proposed portfolios depends largely on the degree of accuracy in predicting future stocks prices dynamics. This study focuses on improving the performance of optimal portfolios by modeling the stocks ...
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Although theories over portfolio speculation have made remarkable progress so far, the performance of its proposed portfolios depends largely on the degree of accuracy in predicting future stocks prices dynamics. This study focuses on improving the performance of optimal portfolios by modeling the stocks prices dynamics through a time-inconsistent multivariate diffusion specification with drift vector. To this end, the share prices are simulated by means of a semi-martingale process with time inconsistent (local) martingale and information drift parts over the entire optimization horizon. Then, using the results of price simulation, we have looked into its consequences for constructing the portfolio of assets in the framework of Sharpe ratio maximization method and mean-variance analysis. Findings indicate that for the stock market under study (Tehran) within the trading dates spanning the interval 24-Mar-2001 to 19-Sep-2020, return and risk (standard deviation) of the portfolios obtained from applying this simulation scheme for mean-variance analysis and maximization of Sharpe ratio are both respectively higher and lower than those realized by the conventional methods. Additionally, a comparison of the simulation approach with performance of the actual market portfolios indicates that the Sharpe ratios of the simulation method is higher than those resulting from the market portfolios.
Monetary economics
Mohammad Feghhi Kashani; Majid Omidi
Abstract
This paper is an endeavor towards investigating the potential role of deposit market structure as a distinct channel for (monetary, fiscal, and regulatory) policy transmission mechanism. In doing so, we have developed the core idea in a rational expectation partial equilibrium setup incorporating the ...
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This paper is an endeavor towards investigating the potential role of deposit market structure as a distinct channel for (monetary, fiscal, and regulatory) policy transmission mechanism. In doing so, we have developed the core idea in a rational expectation partial equilibrium setup incorporating the possibility of contagion risk in the banking system. This has enabled us to build up more sensible analytical findings within a tractable structure which is capable of making diverse equilibria spotted in some empirical evidence. The setup/paper lays down conditions under which one could expect Nash equilibria involving, inter alia, “limited price war”, “deposit rates rat race”, “bank run”, and “systemic banking crisis” followed by incidents of “banking panic”. This multiplicity in equilibria is the result of interaction between the deposit market structural characteristics and policy commands due to externalities originating from strategic complementarity/substitution among the rivalry banks in the market. Further the paper explores the allocation and stabilization efficiency implications in terms of conceivable equilibria for deposit rates, deposit market share, expected net returns, expected markup, and the level of expected effort of banks operating in the banking system with an emphasis on the role of equity capital in between.
