Monetary economics
Fariba Osmani; Ali Cheshomi; Narges Salehnia; Mohammad Taher Ahmadi Shadmehri
Abstract
In recent years, Iran's economic problems have increased inflation and subsequently affected fluctuations in consumption. Therefore, this research analyzed the impact of positive and negative inflationary shocks on consumption during the monthly period from April 2010 to March 2022 with the NARDL approach. ...
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In recent years, Iran's economic problems have increased inflation and subsequently affected fluctuations in consumption. Therefore, this research analyzed the impact of positive and negative inflationary shocks on consumption during the monthly period from April 2010 to March 2022 with the NARDL approach. This study considers GDP per capita, nominal interbank interest rate, and unofficial exchange rate variables as control variables. The results, supporting Duesenbery’s ratchet effect, show that positive and negative inflation shocks have an asymmetric effect on per capita consumption. One unit of positive inflation shocks growth causes a 0.012 decrease in consumption, and one unit of negative inflation shock causes a 0.049 increase in consumption. This means that there is always excess demand in the market; on the one hand, it is an expression of consumerism in Iranian society. Positive changes in real GDP increase real consumption by a coefficient of 0.733, and negative changes in GDP cause a decrease in consumption by a coefficient of 0.314. Empirical results also discovered long-run asymmetric effects between interest rates and consumption, so with one unit increase in interest rate, consumption decreases by about 0.133. With one unit decrease in interest rate, consumption increases by about 0.117. This study suggests policymakers should prioritize low inflation and economic growth goals in implementing monetary policies to increase household consumption and well-being.
Monetary economics
Ali Cheshomi; Fariba Osmani
Abstract
Despite the recession in global financial markets, the Tehran stock Exchange experienced significant growth during the COVID-19 outbreak. Therefore, this article tries to solve this puzzle by analyzes the effect of three Coronavirus waves on the total index of Tehran stock Exchange, its sub-indices, ...
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Despite the recession in global financial markets, the Tehran stock Exchange experienced significant growth during the COVID-19 outbreak. Therefore, this article tries to solve this puzzle by analyzes the effect of three Coronavirus waves on the total index of Tehran stock Exchange, its sub-indices, and the different industries with daily data of Iran and the regression method with multiple breakpoints. The results show that each wave of COVID-19 have different effects on the stock market. COVID-19 in the first wave had a negative effect on the index of industries such as refined petroleum, chemical, Metals and transportation but had a positive effect on industries such as medicine and food. But in subsequent waves, response of different industries to the new pandemic is complicated for two reasons. First, the nominal exchange rate has positive and significant effect on main industries such as motor mehicles, banks, refined petroleum, metals and chemical (which have a considerable weight in the Tehran Stock Exchange), can show the positive trend of the index, especially in the first and second waves of the COVID-19. Second, the government's manipulatian in raising the stock prices of these main industries to finance its budget deficit caused the Tehran Stock Exchange index to move in the opposite direction in some periods in response to the Corona virus.
