تحلیل تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی از اثرات تحریم های اقتصادی : شواهدی از بانک مرکزی ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه اقتصاد،دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران.

2 گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران. ایران

10.22099/ijes.2020.36182.1643

چکیده

تحریم‌ نفتی از مهمترین تحریم ها بوده و اثرات مهم و قابل توجهی بر متغیرهای کلان اقتصاد ایران داشته است. از این جهت این پژوهش درصدد تحلیل تأثیر تحریم‌های مذکور بر متغیرهای کلان اقتصاد ایران در قالب روش تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی با رویکرد نیوکینزی است. شبیه‌سازی اعمال تحریم‌ نفتی و مالی بین‌المللی بر اقتصاد ایران نشان می‌دهد افزایش شدت تحریم‌ها، میزان سرمایه‌گذاری خارجی و دولتی، تکنولوژی، صادرات و در نتیجه تولید بخش نفت را کاهش می-دهد؛ منجر‌به کاهش نسبت ذخایر خارجی بانک مرکزی به پایه پولی و افزایش نرخ ارز می‌شود؛ کاهش تولید داخلی، کاهش صادرات، افزایش تورم و در نتیجه بروز رکود تورمی در اقتصاد ملی را به همراه دارد؛ موجب افزایش مخارج مصرفی و کاهش مخارج سرمایه‌ای خانوار می‌شود؛ از سوی دیگر درآمدهای دولت را کاهش و با اتخاذ سیاست مالی دولت در قالب افزایش مخارج جاری و حفظ مخارج عمرانی جهت جلوگیری از تعمیق رکود اقتصادی، موجبات کسری بودجه دولت و تمایل آن به فروش اوراق را فراهم می‌آورد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


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