Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran.
10.22099/ijes.2022.42270.1796
Abstract
The primary objective of the present article is to study the impact of positive shocks in government expenditures during different financial periods on economic variables in Iran. To this end, first, financial condition index was created through principal components analysis. Then, using LR non-linear test and the data related to the period of 2005 to 2018, while studying non-linearity, the value of the variable threshold variable is estimated exogenously. Therefore, the value of the threshold of financial index is considered to be -0.36. Threshold Vector Autoregression Model (TVAR) with the assumption of the possibility of regime switching and generalized impulse-response functions are extracted to examine the impact of positive and negative shocks in government expenditures. Based on the results, the reaction of economic variables to positive shocks in government expenditures will be independent from financial periods whereas the reaction to negative shocks in government expenditures is influenced by financial periods, especially the period of recession. financial sector cannot improve real sector due to structural problems. increasing government authority, lack of competition space between public and private sector, allocating inefficient government spending have caused that financial sector cannot significant effect on economic real sector such as economic growth And in some cases we will see the negative impact of this sector.
Keywords
Main Subjects
Article Title [Persian]
آیا شوک مخارج دولت در رونق مالی موثرتر است یا در دوران رکود؟
Authors [Persian]
- سمیه رسولی فیروزآبادی
- نظر دهمرده قلعه نو
- محمدنبی شهیکی تاش
دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران.
Abstract [Persian]
هدف اصلی این مقاله بررسی تاثیر شوک های مثبت مخارج دولت در دوره های مختلف مالی بر متغیرهای اقتصادی ایران می باشد. بدین منظور ابتدا شاخص وضعیت مالی از طریق تحلیل مولفه های اصلی ایجاد شد. سپس با استفاده از آزمون غیرخطی LR و داده های مربوط به دوره زمانی 1384 تا 1397، ضمن بررسی غیرخطی بودن، مقدار متغیر آستانه متغیر به صورت برون زا برآورد می شود. بنابراین مقدار آستانه شاخص مالی 0.36- در نظر گرفته می شود. مدل خودرگرسیون بردار آستانه (TVAR) با فرض امکان تغییر رژیم و توابع واکنش تکانه تعمیم یافته برای بررسی تأثیر شوک های مثبت و منفی در مخارج دولت استخراج شده است. بر اساس نتایج، واکنش متغیرهای اقتصادی به شوک‌های مثبت در مخارج دولت مستقل از دوره‌های مالی خواهد بود، در حالی که واکنش به شوک‌های منفی در مخارج دولت متاثر از دوره‌های مالی به‌ویژه دوره رکود است. بخش مالی به دلیل مشکلات ساختاری نمی تواند بخش واقعی را بهبود بخشد. افزایش اختیارات دولت، نبود فضای رقابتی بین بخش دولتی و خصوصی، تخصیص ناکارآمد هزینه‌های دولتی باعث شده است که بخش مالی نتواند تأثیر چشمگیری بر بخش واقعی اقتصادی مانند رشد اقتصادی داشته باشد و در مواردی شاهد تأثیر منفی این بخش باشیم.
Keywords [Persian]
- " خودرگرسیون برداری آستانه ای" شوک مخارج دولت"
- " چرخه های مالی"
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