Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
1 Faculty of Economics, Payam-e-Noor University, Iran
2 Faculty of Economics, Allame Tabatabai University, Tehran, Iran
3 Faculty of Economics, Tehran University, Tehran, Iran
Abstract
This paper primarily focuses on the global macroeconomic consequence, which are the result of country-specific oil supply shocks using the GVAR-Oil model estimated for 27 countries/regions over the 1979Q2-2019Q4 period. Not only does this approach include how shocks affect directly exposed countries but it also indicates the indirect results of shocks thanks to secondary or tertiary channels. Given the importance of Saudi Arabia and Iran in the world’s oil supply, adopting this model facilitates the way in which oil supply shocks are examined in the country-specific context. Therefore, the results indicate different disruptions depending on which country is subject to the shock. In fact, this study shows that a negative shock to oil supply in Iran has relatively insignificant effects on the global economy compared with those of Saudi Arabia since it can be neutralized by the increase in Saudi Arabia oil production. A negative shock to the oil supply in Saudi Arabia, however, results in an increase in oil prices, which adversely affects GDP and financial market in general. In addition, this approach provides policymakers with more opportunities to cope with consequences, which are the result of Covid-19, sanctions, and war, for instance, in a wider range of countries as representatives of the global economy, and thus help them to make better strategic decisions.
Keywords
Main Subjects
Article Title [Persian]
تأثیر شوک عرضه نفت بر اقتصاد جهانی: دو غول نفتی اوپک
Authors [Persian]
- الهام غلامپور 1
- تیمور محمدی 2
- اصغر ابوالحسنی هستیانی 1
- محسن مهرآرا 3
1 دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه پیام نور، ایران
2 دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی ، تهران، ایران.
3 دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران
Abstract [Persian]
رابطه بین درآمد نفتی، نرخ ارز و M2 بر شاخص‌های قیمت مصرف‌کننده و شاخص مصرف‌کننده، طی سال‌های 2005:1-2022:1، در ایران با استفاده از روش QARDL بررسی شد. نتایج نشان داد که در کوتاه‌مدت تمامی متغیرها تأثیر نامتقارن بر CPI و PPI داشتند. درآمدهای نفتی در بلندمدت از چندک 5/. تا میانه، تأثیر متغیر بر تورم افزایش یافته و سپس تأثیر آن کاهش می‌یابد. همچنین در بلندمدت اثر افزایش بر PPI بیشتر از شاخص قیمت مصرف کننده است. در بلندمدت، اثر نرخ ارز بر شاخص‌های قیمت مصرف‌کننده و PPI، در عین متقارن بودن، غیرخطی بود. زیرا از چندک 0.2 تا 0.8 اثر آن به نسبت افزایش و سپس کاهش یافت. همچنین در مورد M2، نتایج نشان داد که این متغیر بر CPI و PPI در کوتاه مدت اثر نامتقارن دارد. به این ترتیب که از چندک میانی تا چندک 9/. اثر آن مثبت و معنادار بود و در بلندمدت نیز نتایج حاکی از تأثیر مثبت آن بر تورم در تمامی چندک‌ها بود. اگرچه، اثر آن بر PPI نامتقارن بود.
Keywords [Persian]
- اقتصاد جهانی: بازار تجاری: وار جهانی
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