Document Type : Research Paper


1 Department of Economics, Economic affairs research institute, Tehran. Iran.

2 Department of Economics, Payame Noor University (PNU), Tehran, Iran.



the relationship between oil revenue, exchange rate, and M2 on the CPI and PPI, over time of 2005:1-2022:1, was investigated in Iran with QARDL method used. The results showed that, in the short run, all the variables had an asymmetric effect on the CPI and the PPI. oil revenues, in the long run, from the quantile of 0.05 to the median, the impact of the variable on the inflation would be increased, and then its impact would be decreased. also, in the long run, the effect of the increase on the PPI is greater than the consumer price index. In the long run, the effect of exchange rates on the CPI and the PPI was nonlinear while being symmetric. because from the quantile of 0.2 to 0.8, its effect proportionally increased and then decreased. also, regarding the M2, the results showed that this variable on the CPI and the PPI had an asymmetric effect, in the short run. in this way, from the middle quantile to the quantile of 0.9, its effect was positive and significant, and in the long run, the results confirmed its positive effect on inflation in all quantiles; although, its effect on the PPI was asymmetric.


Main Subjects

Article Title [Persian]

شواهدی جدید از اثر درآمدهای نفتی، نرخ ارز و حجم نقدینگی بر CPI و PPI: رهیافت ARDL مبتنی بر چندک

Authors [Persian]

  • روزبه بالونژادنوری 1
  • امیرعلی فرهنگ 2

1 گروه اقتصاد، پژوهشکده امور اقتصادی، تهران، ایران.

2 گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران.

Abstract [Persian]

رابطه بین درآمد نفتی، نرخ ارز و M2 بر شاخص‌های قیمت مصرف‌کننده و شاخص مصرف‌کننده، طی سال‌های 2005:1-2022:1، در ایران با استفاده از روش QARDL بررسی شد. نتایج نشان داد که در کوتاه‌مدت تمامی متغیرها تأثیر نامتقارن بر CPI و PPI داشتند. درآمدهای نفتی در بلندمدت از چندک 5/. تا میانه، تأثیر متغیر بر تورم افزایش یافته و سپس تأثیر آن کاهش می‌یابد. همچنین در بلندمدت اثر افزایش بر PPI بیشتر از شاخص قیمت مصرف کننده است. در بلندمدت، اثر نرخ ارز بر شاخص‌های قیمت مصرف‌کننده و PPI، در عین متقارن بودن، غیرخطی بود. زیرا از چندک 0.2 تا 0.8 اثر آن به نسبت افزایش و سپس کاهش یافت. همچنین در مورد M2، نتایج نشان داد که این متغیر بر CPI و PPI در کوتاه مدت اثر نامتقارن دارد. به این ترتیب که از چندک میانی تا چندک 9/. اثر آن مثبت و معنادار بود و در بلندمدت نیز نتایج حاکی از تأثیر مثبت آن بر تورم در تمامی چندک‌ها بود. اگرچه، اثر آن بر PPI نامتقارن بود.

Keywords [Persian]

  • قیمت نفت
  • نرخ ارز
  • CPI
  • PPI
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