آموزش و رشد اقتصادی در ایران: یک فراتحلیل

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

دانشکده روانشناسی و علوم تربیتی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

این مطالعه نخستین فراتحلیل در زمینۀ تأثیر آموزش بر رشد اقتصادی در ایران است و شواهدی را منحصراً با توجه به اندازه تأثیر ارائه می­دهد. هدف این مقاله ارائه تصویری واضح و یکپارچه از تأثیر آموزش بر رشد اقتصادی ایران با ترکیب مطالعات مختلف است. این پژوهش بر اساس نمونه­ای متشکل از 57 مطالعه در دوره 2000-2021 یک فراتحلیل را انجام می­دهد و از روش استوفر برای ارائه مقادیر احتمال استفاده می­کند. پس از تفکیک الگوها به دو قالب لگاریتمی و غیرلگاریتمی و همچنین طبقه­بندی متغیرهای آموزش و به­دست آوردن کمترین احتمالات معنی­دار ضرایب آنها، تأثیر آموزش بررسی می­شود. این بررسی حاکی از آن است که سه شاخص آموزش از جمله نرخ ثبت­نام متوسطه، سهم کارکنان آموزش دیده از تعداد کل شاغلان و نسبت دانش­آموزان به کل جمعیت تأثیر مثبت و معناداری بر رشد اقتصادی دارند، به­طوری که افزایش یک درصدی آنها به­ترتیب 28/0، 19/0 و 84/0 درصد باعث رشد اقتصادی می­شود. بنابراین دولت باید توجه ویژه­ای به سرمایه­گذاری در آموزش متوسطه و هدفمندسازی اشتغال دانش­آموختگان دوره متوسطه در بازار کار داشته باشد و از سرمایه­گذاری بیش از حد در آموزش عالی خودداری کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

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