Social Economic
Fatemeh Bazzazan
Abstract
Tourism has not been a growing sector in Iran in recent decades due to political conflicts with the west. Still, there is hope that it grows after lifting the economic and monetary sanctions and may bring both political and economic stability and more foreign tourists to Iran. This paper aims to study ...
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Tourism has not been a growing sector in Iran in recent decades due to political conflicts with the west. Still, there is hope that it grows after lifting the economic and monetary sanctions and may bring both political and economic stability and more foreign tourists to Iran. This paper aims to study the distributional impact of foreign tourist spending in Iran using structural path analysis (SPA) within the SAM framework. The primary databases are the 2011 SAM and foreign tourism spending in 2018. According to the SAM multiplier results, high-income groups benefit significantly from foreign tourists spending and generates more inequality between ten deciles of urban and rural household income groups. Moreover, the SPA approach results indicate that most of the paths affecting household income pass through production factors. Evaluating production factors reveal that mixed-income has a significant contributor to intermediate paths., Its share in global influence for higher-income groups is significantly greater than middle- and low-income groups. Global influence also reveals that compensation of employees for lower household income groups would be affected sharply.
Public Economics
Rezgar Feizi; Sahar Amidi; Khaled Ahmadzadeh; Bakhtiar Javaheri
Abstract
The exchange rate and international oil price are key variables to cause the effects of external shock on economics and the relationship to domestic economy. Since in countries like Iran, most government revenues come from exchange earnings from the international markets by oil exports, the impact of ...
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The exchange rate and international oil price are key variables to cause the effects of external shock on economics and the relationship to domestic economy. Since in countries like Iran, most government revenues come from exchange earnings from the international markets by oil exports, the impact of these two variables on the economy has significant consequences. In addition, it should be considered how fluctuations in the exchange rate and international oil prices can impact policy and international relations. According to the international trade perspective, it is believed that the exchange rate affects the economy through the changes in exports and imports commodities; therefore, expectations of the exchange rate will affect the price of the products traded. Moreover, the impact of oil price on the production of commodities changes the level of supply for activities and income of institutions through changes in the production factors and intermediary imports price. We conclude that if any change in both exchange rate and oil prices occurs, it will cause a change in welfare indicators. This research has therefore arisen to fill this void in the literature. Moreover, it utilizes a logistic model to represent the change in the exchange rate and oil price. Based on empirical results, a recursive computable general equilibrium model is constructed to predict future social welfare and simulate the impact of exchange rate fluctuations along with the oil price shock. The results are presented in different scenarios using the 2011 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM).
Ali Faridzad; Ali Asghar Banouei
Abstract
The present study is to indicate that the comparison between sectoral production multipliers of an input-output (I/O) model and a social accounting matrix (SAM) framework is almost impossible without taking into account accounting balances and theoretical considerations. Theoretically, the I/O model ...
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The present study is to indicate that the comparison between sectoral production multipliers of an input-output (I/O) model and a social accounting matrix (SAM) framework is almost impossible without taking into account accounting balances and theoretical considerations. Theoretically, the I/O model provides the Leontief’s production function, on the basis of which sectoral output multiplier can be derived. In a SAM, however, the combined Leontief-Keynes models dominate multipliers commonly known as accounting multiplier matrices. The inter-industry blocks of these matrices cannot be called sectoral output multipliers as in an I/O model, rather they are known as sectoral supply multipliers. Therefore, the two sectoral multipliers are of different nature and cannot be compared for assessing sectoral performance and sectoral policy analysis of the key sectors. In the light of these evidence, this important question can be posed that whether it is possible to compare sectoral multipliers of the two approaches or not? To investigate this, two databases were used, namely the conventional I/O tables and SAM. The data for both sets of tables, prepared by the Research Center of the Islamic Parliament for the year 2011, were aggregated into 21×21 sectors. The overall results indicated that sectoral output multipliers of a conventional I/O model grossly overestimated multipliers of key sectors while sectoral supply multipliers of a conventional SAM underestimated multipliers of the key sectors. To solve the problem and make sectoral multipliers of the two approaches comparable, deduction of imports has been proposed. The overall findings showed that sectoral output multipliers of a conventional I/O model were overestimated about 1.284 unit on average and sectoral supply multipliers of a conventional SAM were underestimated about 1.245 unit on average. Considering the domestic I/O model and SAM, however, it was observed that sectoral output multipliers is on an average 1.202 in domestic IOM whereas in domestic SAM sectoral output multipliers is on an average 1.237. Consequently, the two approaches were comparable in sectoral policy analysis.
Somayeh Jafari; Rasul Bakhshi Dastjerdi; Reza Moosavi Mohseni
Abstract
This paper estimates the effects of increase in Iran’s non-oil exports on its economic growth as well as sectoral outputs, using a single country, comparative static, exogenous policy Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. The paper also investigates the share of tradable sectors in reaching ...
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This paper estimates the effects of increase in Iran’s non-oil exports on its economic growth as well as sectoral outputs, using a single country, comparative static, exogenous policy Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. The paper also investigates the share of tradable sectors in reaching to the targeted growth rate (8%) in 5th socio-economic development plan. For this purpose, the parameters of the model are calibrated based on Iran’s Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) which carries a snapshot of the Iran’s economy. The model is then used to simulate the impact of increasing the exports uniformly across all sectors by 10, 20, and 30 percent on endogenous variables, including sectoral outputs, and GDP. Results suggest that 2.03% of targeted economic growth rate would be achieved by encouraging a 6% growth in exports. Our founding also indicates that industry and mine sector in Iran, would have more influence on growth than other non-oil sectors.
