نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران

چکیده

مچینگ ضریب تمایل به وفور برای تخمین اثر برنامه و مداخلات سیاستی برای داده های مشاهده‌ای استفاده شده است. این روش با مقایسه ی میان دوگروه درمان و کنترل به استنتاج آماری درباره معنی داری تاثیر این سیاستها بر متغیرهای هدف می پردازد و به همین دلیل یکی از موضوعات مهم در هنگام استفاده از مچینگ ضریب تمایل، برآورد انحراف معیار برای تخمین اثر درمان است. برآورد دقیق واریانس و انحراف معیار،آزمون آماری کاراتر و فاصله اطمینان دقیق تر را ممکن می سازد. با این حال اختلافات بسیاری در ادبیات چگونگی تخمین انحراف معیار وجود دارد. برخی از این روش‌ها مبتنی بر بازنمونه‌گیری و برخی مستقل از آن است. در این پژوهش با به‌کارگیری شبیه‌سازی مونت کارلو و محاسبه‌ی میانگین حداقل مربعات خطای این برآوردگرها( MSE) به مقایسه این روش‌ها پرداخته شده‌است. نتایج شبیه‌سازی در این مطالعه دلالت بر مزیت روشهای جکنایف و استاندارد نسبت به روش های آبادی-ایمبنز ، بوت استرپ و زیرنمونه داشته‌است. در پایان نیز با بررسی مقاله طیبی و همکاران نشان داده شد که روش های مختلف برآورد واریانس در برآوردگر مچینگ منجر به استنتاج آماری متفاوت از لحاظ معنی داری آماره ها می شد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

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