Research Paper
Energy Economics
Seyyed Mohammad Reza Aghaei Marzebali; Abdollah Arasteh
Abstract
Many nations’ quick development and progress during the last century may be directly attributed to the widespread use of fossil fuels. Particularly, oil has stood out as a defining feature of human civilization. However, the increasing use of fossil fuels like oil and coal has led to serious problems ...
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Many nations’ quick development and progress during the last century may be directly attributed to the widespread use of fossil fuels. Particularly, oil has stood out as a defining feature of human civilization. However, the increasing use of fossil fuels like oil and coal has led to serious problems for the world’s ecosystems, national security, and economic prosperity. This article uses actual options to determine the best time to invest in renewable energy based on diesel price volatility, electricity price volatility, and oil consumption externalities. Different actual choice approaches for discretion assessment are addressed and compared, as well as the usage of devolution for decision making. Finally, Monte Carlo simulations are used to compare these techniques to conventional approaches. The findings show that investments in renewable energy have a positive net present value. The timelessness of investing choices is emphasized by the real options method. Under the present energy system in Iran, switching to renewable energy sources is preferable than maintaining reliance on oil to provide power. Switching to renewable energy sources can help Iran reduce its reliance on oil and promote sustainable economic growth. Furthermore, can help to address the negative externalities associated with fossil fuel use, such as air pollution and climate change. Therefore, it is essential to continue to evaluate and promote the development of renewable energy sources in Iran and around the world. By increasing the cost of using oil or reducing the cost of electricity, policies should encourage investment in renewable energy sources.
original manuscript
, Behavioral Economics
Saeid Tajdini; Mohammad Qezelbash; Mohsen Mehrara; Majid Lotfi Ghahroud; Mohammad Farajnezhad
Abstract
This paper introduces an innovative model of Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), offering a novel perspective on its design and functionalities. It presents an innovative approach to digital currency design, introducing "Export Crypto" as a novel cryptocurrency that diverges from conventional Central ...
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This paper introduces an innovative model of Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), offering a novel perspective on its design and functionalities. It presents an innovative approach to digital currency design, introducing "Export Crypto" as a novel cryptocurrency that diverges from conventional Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) by anchoring its value not to fiat currencies but to intrinsic economic factors and global trade dynamics. In contrast to traditional CBDCs, our model relies on the principles of purchasing power parity (PPP) to establish a more robust and transparent link between the cryptocurrency's value and real economic activities. The core parameters for assessing the value of Export Crypto revolve around equitable trade balances among nations and their respective export volumes. This approach fundamentally deviates from the conventional practice of pegging digital currencies to a country's fiat currency. Our research findings underscore that a cryptocurrency rooted in economic fundamentals can offer a more effective tool for managing the money supply, particularly in regions where traditional CBDCs may not be optimally suited. Furthermore, Export Crypto's design has the potential to foster fair-trade practices and encourage sustainable economic growth by aligning its worth with a nation's economic prowess and its trade interactions on the global stage. This groundbreaking approach to central bank digital currency opens new avenues for enhancing economic stability and promoting equitable international trade relationships.
Research Paper
Econometrics
Tofigh Beigi; Ahmad Sadraei Javaheri; Ali Hussein Samadi; Ebrahim Hadian
Abstract
Uncertainty is a controversial issue in the philosophy and methodology of economics. Since economic uncertainty is not directly observable, quantifying it is confronted with significant complexities. A common method in this context involves computing the proxy of uncertainty using time series models. ...
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Uncertainty is a controversial issue in the philosophy and methodology of economics. Since economic uncertainty is not directly observable, quantifying it is confronted with significant complexities. A common method in this context involves computing the proxy of uncertainty using time series models. Within this framework, the conditional volatility of the unforecastable components of time series is considered as an uncertainty measure. In this regard, the basic forecasting model should be specified in a way that its forecast errors lack any predictable content. In previous studies, the focus has solely been on economic and financial variables in computing the uncertainty measure, while the role of institutional factors has been neglected in the forecasting model. Meanwhile, based on economic literature, institutions play an important role in controlling and reducing uncertainty. Therefore, in the present study, the economic uncertainty measure is extracted based on a Large-dimensional dynamic factor model, employing a set of 72 macroeconomic and institutional time series for the Iranian economy. The results indicate that overlooking institutional factors in the forecasting model can lead to an overestimation of economic uncertainty. Our perspective enhances the accuracy of uncertainty measurement and provides a more comprehensive understanding of the determinant factors of economic uncertainty.
Research Paper
, Behavioral Economics
Raheleh Dabiri; Mohammad Vaez Barzani; Saeed Samadi
Abstract
Decision-making on financing methods is one of the most important decisions of managers that can be affected by their behavioral biases. Behavioral biases can cause managers to make irrational decisions and select the optimal financing method with difficulty. Recognizing and evaluating biases is an important ...
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Decision-making on financing methods is one of the most important decisions of managers that can be affected by their behavioral biases. Behavioral biases can cause managers to make irrational decisions and select the optimal financing method with difficulty. Recognizing and evaluating biases is an important step to control them and improve decision making. Given the importance of this issue, the present study has analyzed the pathology of evaluation methods of behavioral biases, specifically in research on financing methods. In this study, for the first time, research onion is used to review studies on evaluation of behavioral biases by research onion. In order to select the articles, related keywords such as behavioral finance, evaluation of behavioral biases, and financing methods were searched in reliable databases and articles related to the research topic were collected. More than 200 articles have been studied and 33 related articles have been selected to examine the methods of evaluating behavioral biases. The study results showed the low variety of statistical analysis methods for evaluating behavioral biases in financing. The application of research onion shows that the methodology of these studies was mainly based on the philosophy of positivism, practical orientation, and comparative approach. Also, it was mainly conducted by the quantitative research and survey strategy, and the data was collected by the library documents.
Research Paper
International Economics
Saeed Iranmanesh; Reza Etesami; reza Ashraf gangoei
Abstract
Since the revolution, Western countries such as the United States of America, the European Union, and the United Nations Security Council have consistently implemented a variety of extensive sanctions on the Islamic Republic of Iran. These sanctions have had a significant impact on Iran's foreign balance ...
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Since the revolution, Western countries such as the United States of America, the European Union, and the United Nations Security Council have consistently implemented a variety of extensive sanctions on the Islamic Republic of Iran. These sanctions have had a significant impact on Iran's foreign balance of payments, particularly in the area of foreign trade. To analyses the effects of these sanctions, a dynamic systems approach was used to simulate Iran's foreign trade pattern. Additionally, the opinions of 15 economics experts were collected through fuzzy questionnaires and analyses using the fuzzy logic method to determine the variable index of sanctions. The research period covered 1979-2021, and four scenarios were examined to assess the economic effects of sanctions on Iran's foreign trade model. The results revealed that sanctions on Iran's exports pose the greatest risk to the country's foreign balance, highlighting the importance of focusing on export development to mitigate the impact of economic sanctions. Furthermore, the study suggests that leveraging trade agreements and strategic partnerships with regional countries can help mitigate the economic consequences of sanctions.
Research Paper
International Economics
sirus charkh; Ahmad Googerdchian; karim azarbayejani; saeed jahaniyan
Abstract
There is a lack of study in Iran’s trade literature to investigate the role of unilateral trade preferences in the attraction of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows. Indeed, this study aims to fill such research gap of the literature. This study examined the influence of non-reciprocal trade ...
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There is a lack of study in Iran’s trade literature to investigate the role of unilateral trade preferences in the attraction of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows. Indeed, this study aims to fill such research gap of the literature. This study examined the influence of non-reciprocal trade preferences (NRTPs) on foreign direct investment (FDI) flows in Iran, with a focus on the Quad nations' (QUAD ) Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) programs. The analysis used the time series data for the period 1985 to 2021 using the ARDL technique to examine the relationship between preferences of unilateral trade utilization and FDI inflows. the symmetric results show that GSP intensify FDI in both the long and short-run. Furthermore, this study revealed that if Iran seeks to export sophisticated items or products that are less reliant on natural resources, as well as greatly liberalize its trading policy, the adoption of GSP is projected to create bigger FDI flows to the nation. Other significant research findings of the symmetric impact indicate the existence of an inverse relationship between real effective exchange rate, the share of natural resources, and GDP on the level of foreign direct investment.Keywords: International Trade, Preferences, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), ARDL, Iran
Research Paper
Econometrics
Pegah Mahdavi; Mohammad Ali Ehsani
Abstract
The understanding of applied modeling in causal effects is of particular importance in econometrics, according to recent developments and research in causal inference applications. We also provide an outline of econometrics’ use of causal inference. The majority of economists would agree that the ...
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The understanding of applied modeling in causal effects is of particular importance in econometrics, according to recent developments and research in causal inference applications. We also provide an outline of econometrics’ use of causal inference. The majority of economists would agree that the randomized controlled experiment is the gold standard for drawing conclusions, but actually, a significant portion of empirical work in econometrics relies on observational data, where, among other things, the possibility of confounding or loss of exogeneity must be taken into account. We focus in particular on two types of contemporary research: randomized experiments and observational studies. Our review of the dynamic causality study approach, the linear method, which includes LP and VAR, and nonlinear statistical modeling which includes BART, and their use in econometrics, are all reviewed in this paper. Modeling dynamic systems with linear parametric models usually suffer limitation which affects forecasting performance and policy implications. On the nonparametric framework, BART specifications can produce more precise tail forecasts than the VAR structure. Finally, BART has the lowest RMSE in linear and non-linear data generation processes, and also the performance of BART important variables in a set of macroeconomic data has an optimal performance than other regression estimators.
Research Paper
Social Economic
Mahdi Filsaraei; Arezoo Yaghoobi
Abstract
Sustainable corporate growth is defined as the sustainable growth of sales and profits under an economic policy and external environment. The ability of enterprises to grow sustainably is not only a guarantee of achieving their long-term business goals, but also a physical requirement for sustainable ...
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Sustainable corporate growth is defined as the sustainable growth of sales and profits under an economic policy and external environment. The ability of enterprises to grow sustainably is not only a guarantee of achieving their long-term business goals, but also a physical requirement for sustainable development of the national economy. Some companies consider sales growth rate or rapid expansion of the company scale as their development goals. This growth is fast, short-term and unstable. The purpose of this research is to investigate the effect of the effectiveness of intellectual capital on the sustainable growth of companies listed in the Tehran Stock Exchange. In this regard, research hypotheses were tested based on a statistical sample of 102 companies during the years 2017 to 2021 and using multivariable regression models. Research results shows that the efficiency of intellectual capital, structural capital and human capital have a positive and significant effect on the growth of the sustainability of listed companies, while efficiency of the used capital has a negative and significant effect on the sustainable growth. The results of this research can be useful for policy makers and company managers, so that they can create sustainable growth in the company. The components of intellectual capital can create long-term sustainable growth in the company and increase the value of the company.
Research Paper
Energy Economics
Mina Javadinia; seyyed Abdol Majid Jalaee Esfand Abadi; Mehdi Nejati
Abstract
Today, the energy market in the world is facing an important position, and on the other hand, the importance of gas as a clean fuel is significant. According to the approach and structure of the energy market, the main axis of this research is based on the game theory approach. On the other hand, the ...
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Today, the energy market in the world is facing an important position, and on the other hand, the importance of gas as a clean fuel is significant. According to the approach and structure of the energy market, the main axis of this research is based on the game theory approach. On the other hand, the interests of Iran and Qatar will give rise to a conflict over price between the two countries. Therefore, in the present study the dynamic computable general equilibrium model and the 2014 social accounting matrix were used to investigate the impact of gas price shocks on the gas exports of these two countries. As Iran and Qatar are known as main competitors in the natural gas sector of world energy market, it is necessary to specify a win-win pricing strategy for both countries. Taking this into account, in the present study a model that incorporates both the dynamic computable general equilibrium and game theory is used for investigation purposes. The results indicate that, 0.5% price increase would be the best strategy from among the wide range of gas price scenarios presented for 2022-2024, because a 0.5% increase in gas prices in general would further increase the exports of Iran and Qatar as two competitors. Thus, based on the equilibrium forms, stepwise price rise over a specific time interval can help these two countries maximize their interests.
Research Paper
Energy Economics
Fatemeh Rafiei
Abstract
Energy subsidies have significant economic implications. On the one hand, they have protected consumers, but on the other hand, they have increased the budget deficit and public spending recently. Moreover, they have reduced private investment, especially in the energy sector, another dangerous consequence ...
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Energy subsidies have significant economic implications. On the one hand, they have protected consumers, but on the other hand, they have increased the budget deficit and public spending recently. Moreover, they have reduced private investment, especially in the energy sector, another dangerous consequence of energy subsidies. It is one of the key and controversial debates in the energy sector of the Iranian economy. The present paper is aimed at promoting thinking and research on how to eliminate energy subsidies. One idea is that energy subsidies should be reduced all at once, while others suggest a gradual elimination of energy subsidies. This paper simulates the elimination of energy subsidies in the base metals industry as one of the most energy-intensive industries in Iran. A dynamic recursive computable general equilibrium model is estimated to evaluate the economic impacts of removing gas subsidies in basic metal manufacture in Iran. according to the results, gas consumption will decrease, and electricity and petroleum products will increase in both scenarios (gradual increase in gas prices after 5 years as Scenario 1 and an increase in gas prices at once as Scenario 2). However, during the period, Scenario 2 reduces the supply of basic metals more than Scenario 1.
Research Paper
Monetary economics
Fariba Osmani; Ali Cheshomi; Narges Salehnia; Mohammad Taher Ahmadi Shadmehri
Abstract
In recent years, Iran's economic problems have increased inflation and subsequently affected fluctuations in consumption. Therefore, this research analyzed the impact of positive and negative inflationary shocks on consumption during the monthly period from April 2010 to March 2022 with the NARDL approach. ...
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In recent years, Iran's economic problems have increased inflation and subsequently affected fluctuations in consumption. Therefore, this research analyzed the impact of positive and negative inflationary shocks on consumption during the monthly period from April 2010 to March 2022 with the NARDL approach. This study considers GDP per capita, nominal interbank interest rate, and unofficial exchange rate variables as control variables. The results, supporting Duesenbery’s ratchet effect, show that positive and negative inflation shocks have an asymmetric effect on per capita consumption. One unit of positive inflation shocks growth causes a 0.012 decrease in consumption, and one unit of negative inflation shock causes a 0.049 increase in consumption. This means that there is always excess demand in the market; on the one hand, it is an expression of consumerism in Iranian society. Positive changes in real GDP increase real consumption by a coefficient of 0.733, and negative changes in GDP cause a decrease in consumption by a coefficient of 0.314. Empirical results also discovered long-run asymmetric effects between interest rates and consumption, so with one unit increase in interest rate, consumption decreases by about 0.133. With one unit decrease in interest rate, consumption increases by about 0.117. This study suggests policymakers should prioritize low inflation and economic growth goals in implementing monetary policies to increase household consumption and well-being.
Research Paper
Environmental Economics
Sasan Gharakhani; Hadi Amiri; Babak Saffari; Maede Mohammadi
Abstract
Groundwater is a natural common-pool resource that has long been a victim of tragedy of the commons due to selfish withdrawal of farmers During recent years. One solution to coping with this problem is to replace flood irrigation with large-scale irrigation system (LIS) within the framework of participatory ...
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Groundwater is a natural common-pool resource that has long been a victim of tragedy of the commons due to selfish withdrawal of farmers During recent years. One solution to coping with this problem is to replace flood irrigation with large-scale irrigation system (LIS) within the framework of participatory conservation projects. As these projects are costly, they require financial support by the government and cooperation among farmers. In this study, given the unstable raining conditions and drying out of Zayanderud, an agent-based model (ABM) on participatory management of groundwater resources is proposed for 223 villages in Isfahan Province in the form of participatory conservative projects. The results of this study indicate sensitivity of model’s simulation and high sensitivity of villagers to the government’s financial supports. This model predicts when the government pays 85% of the costs for changing the irrigation system, the participation will rise to two-thirds. Further, the results of simulation suggest that with increasing the number of farmers, the rate of participation will significantly drop. Finally, according to different scenarios in this study, it is suggested that the government begins its financial support from the small villages with the pioneer group (near the pumping water) and scale-free social network.
