International Economics
sirus charkh; Ahmad Googerdchian; karim azarbayejani; saeed jahaniyan
Abstract
There is a lack of study in Iran’s trade literature to investigate the role of unilateral trade preferences in the attraction of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows. Indeed, this study aims to fill such research gap of the literature. This study examined the influence of non-reciprocal trade ...
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There is a lack of study in Iran’s trade literature to investigate the role of unilateral trade preferences in the attraction of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows. Indeed, this study aims to fill such research gap of the literature. This study examined the influence of non-reciprocal trade preferences (NRTPs) on foreign direct investment (FDI) flows in Iran, with a focus on the Quad nations' (QUAD ) Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) programs. The analysis used the time series data for the period 1985 to 2021 using the ARDL technique to examine the relationship between preferences of unilateral trade utilization and FDI inflows. the symmetric results show that GSP intensify FDI in both the long and short-run. Furthermore, this study revealed that if Iran seeks to export sophisticated items or products that are less reliant on natural resources, as well as greatly liberalize its trading policy, the adoption of GSP is projected to create bigger FDI flows to the nation. Other significant research findings of the symmetric impact indicate the existence of an inverse relationship between real effective exchange rate, the share of natural resources, and GDP on the level of foreign direct investment.Keywords: International Trade, Preferences, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), ARDL, Iran
Public Economics
Ebrahim Rezaei
Abstract
Assessing the recent decade’s literature outlines that, advanced economies mainly employed temporary tax incentives to spur economic activities after 2007-2008 economic crisis whereas developing countries use broadly them as a normal as well as a permanent fiscal policy to intrigue economy. Among ...
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Assessing the recent decade’s literature outlines that, advanced economies mainly employed temporary tax incentives to spur economic activities after 2007-2008 economic crisis whereas developing countries use broadly them as a normal as well as a permanent fiscal policy to intrigue economy. Among latter group, Iran’s fiscal authorities have been using quite an extensive diversity of tax incentives to boost real sector variables such as investment, capital accumulation and output for a long-term period. The methodology is based on the simulating a partial as well as a general equilibrium model. Benefiting from a New Keynesian general equilibrium (NKGE) model, in this research, the comprehensive effects of tax allowances, accelerated depreciation, and tax reduction on the macroeconomic variables (investment, capital, output and consumption) and fiscal measures (government revenues and the present value of the government revenue) have been evaluated. Our findings reveal that, based on the assumption of flexible wages and prices, running tax incentives policy would culminate to considerable budget deficit followed by an unsustainable fiscal stance in the economy. However, imposing nominal rigidities by their special mechanisms brings about positive effects of tax incentives and relatively fiscal sustainability. In other words, introducing rigidities in wages and prices causes positive reactions of mentioned macro and fiscal variables.
Other
zeinab shokoohi; Mohammad Bakhshoudeh; Mahdi Asgari
Abstract
Subsidies reform in Iran started in 2010 after the implementation of the Targeted Subsidies Plan. Increasing the efficiency and productivity of production units through price realization was a main objective of this policy. However, the resulting spike in input and output prices challenged the achievement ...
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Subsidies reform in Iran started in 2010 after the implementation of the Targeted Subsidies Plan. Increasing the efficiency and productivity of production units through price realization was a main objective of this policy. However, the resulting spike in input and output prices challenged the achievement of the policy goals. The main purpose of this article is to compare the efficiency of the dairy farms in Iran before and after the Targeted Subsidies Plan was implemented. We used a sample of longitudinal data over the years 1990, 1993, 2000, 2007, 2013, 2016, and 2019 covering 11 regions in 18 provinces and applied stochastic frontier analysis by imposing the monotonicity condition to evaluate efficiency and productivity of the farms. The estimation results show that the unrestricted production frontier is not monotonic in energy and labor. Therefore, imposing a monotonicity condition reduces estimation bias which is critical for policymaking. Unbiased estimation of productive efficiency resulting from imposing the monotonicity condition ranges from 0.72 to 0.86, depending on the region. Results also show a 17% reduction in the production efficiency of the examined dairy farms after the subsidy reform plan which is against the policy goals. The regional differences in the efficiency of intensive dairy farming indicate the need for the more regionally specific supplementary policy, in terms of support schemes and subsidy reforms.
Macroeconomics
seyedrohollah Ahmadi Hajiabadi; Jabbar Ul-Haq; Hubert Visas
Abstract
The present paper aims to test the new structural economics hypothesis in regard to the effect of development strategy on economic growth in a country that has witnessed an eight-year war and has suffered severe sanctions i.e., Iran. According to the new structural economics, if a country adopts a comparative ...
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The present paper aims to test the new structural economics hypothesis in regard to the effect of development strategy on economic growth in a country that has witnessed an eight-year war and has suffered severe sanctions i.e., Iran. According to the new structural economics, if a country adopts a comparative advantage defying strategy, it will have poor growth performance. In contrast, to have a strong economic growth, it should employ a comparative advantage following strategy. the technology choice index (TCI) is utilized as a proxy of development strategy. Based on this indicator, increasing of TCI means that a country is conducting a comparative advantage defying strategy. The relationship is estimated by the ARDL bounds test approach. To run the model, the technology choice index (TCI), and a variety of control variables were included in the model. Hence, time-series data was collected from reliable databases for the period 1979-2018. The results in which their stability is checked, reveal a negative effect of adopting a comparative advantage defying strategy on economic growth, which supports Lin's hypothesis. In other words, it is shown that by increasing TCI, economic growth is declined significantly. So, to achieve economic growth, a kind of development strategy should be adopted that is based on pursuing comparative advantages.
Total authors
Abstract
سرمایهگذاری مستقیم خارجی (FDI) به عنوان بخش جداییناپذیر از یک نظام اقتصادی باز و موثر بین المللی و عاملی کلیدی برای رشد و توسعه بین کشورها محسوب میشود. ایران به دلیل ...
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سرمایهگذاری مستقیم خارجی (FDI) به عنوان بخش جداییناپذیر از یک نظام اقتصادی باز و موثر بین المللی و عاملی کلیدی برای رشد و توسعه بین کشورها محسوب میشود. ایران به دلیل برخورداری از منابع عظیم نفت و گاز و همچنین بازارهای نسبتاً بزرگ، پتانسیل بالایی برای جذب سرمایه گذاری مستقیم خارجی به مراتب بیشتر از عملکرد خود دارد. این در حالی است که اعمال تحریمهای مختلف بر کشور در سالهای اخیر با ایجاد فضای روانی خصمانه و ریسک بالای فعالیتهای اقتصادی منجر به کاهش سرمایه گذاری مستقیم خارجی شده است.در این مقاله قصد داریم با استفاده از روش کنترل ترکیبی (SCM) به بررسی تاثیرات گسترده تحریمهای اقتصادی اعمال شده توسط ایالات متحده بر FDI ایران بین سالهای 1980 تا 2020 بپردازیم. ما از طریق SCM تفاوت FDI را بین کشور تحت درمان (ایران) و ترکیبی (ایران ترکیبی) تخمین میزنیم.نتایج نشان میدهد که تحریمها منجر به کاهش تقریبا 12 میلیارد دلاری سرمایه گذاری مستقیم خارجی در مقایسه با وضعیت بدون تحریم شده است. به دنبال تشدید تحریمها در دولت ترامپ و خروج ایالات متحده از برجام، اثرات منفی کاهشFDI به اوج خود یعنی 20 میلیارد دلار در سال 2020 رسیده است. علاوه بر این، آزمونهای دارونما نشان میدهند که نتایج از نظر آماری در سطح 10٪ معنادار هستند.
Environmental Economics
Mehran Zarei; Zahra Nasrollahi
Abstract
The article is grounded on the rapid demand growth and supply constraints, which have imposed unprecedented pressure on water resources in Iran. Virtual water import has been recently discussed as a policy to tackle water scarcity and so the study calculates (with input-output technique) virtual water ...
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The article is grounded on the rapid demand growth and supply constraints, which have imposed unprecedented pressure on water resources in Iran. Virtual water import has been recently discussed as a policy to tackle water scarcity and so the study calculates (with input-output technique) virtual water flows between Iran and European Union (EU 28) in 2011. The results show that Iran has been a net importer of virtual water in trade with the EU28, with net imports of about 667 million m3. The largest Virtual Water Export from Iran to the EU28 are respectively to Germany, Spain and Italy, which accounted for more than 74% of the total virtual water exports. By contrast, the Netherlands, Germany and Austria have been the largest virtual water exporters to Iran, with a total share of over 68.8% of the total. In any case, while Iran's virtual water import from the EU28 is about 2 times as much as virtual water exports, the value of Iran's imports from the EU28 is more than 7.6 times of its exports. An indicator developed shows that Iran's exports to the EU are high water-intensive but Iran's imports from the European Union are low water intensive.
Social Economic
Fatemeh Bazzazan
Abstract
Tourism has not been a growing sector in Iran in recent decades due to political conflicts with the west. Still, there is hope that it grows after lifting the economic and monetary sanctions and may bring both political and economic stability and more foreign tourists to Iran. This paper aims to study ...
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Tourism has not been a growing sector in Iran in recent decades due to political conflicts with the west. Still, there is hope that it grows after lifting the economic and monetary sanctions and may bring both political and economic stability and more foreign tourists to Iran. This paper aims to study the distributional impact of foreign tourist spending in Iran using structural path analysis (SPA) within the SAM framework. The primary databases are the 2011 SAM and foreign tourism spending in 2018. According to the SAM multiplier results, high-income groups benefit significantly from foreign tourists spending and generates more inequality between ten deciles of urban and rural household income groups. Moreover, the SPA approach results indicate that most of the paths affecting household income pass through production factors. Evaluating production factors reveal that mixed-income has a significant contributor to intermediate paths., Its share in global influence for higher-income groups is significantly greater than middle- and low-income groups. Global influence also reveals that compensation of employees for lower household income groups would be affected sharply.
Public Economics
Shahryar Zaroki; Mastaneh Yadollahi Otaghsara
Abstract
This study investigates the effects of real minimum wage on informal employment in rural and urban areas of provinces of Iran between 2005 and 2018. For this aim, by applying microdata on the income-expenditure plan of urban and rural households and with the aid of the minimum wage index, the ratio of ...
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This study investigates the effects of real minimum wage on informal employment in rural and urban areas of provinces of Iran between 2005 and 2018. For this aim, by applying microdata on the income-expenditure plan of urban and rural households and with the aid of the minimum wage index, the ratio of informal employment to total employment was calculated. Preliminary data analysis shows that one-third of urban employees and more than half of rural employees are engaged in informal occupations during this period. Then, the research model was estimated using the panel data method. Estimating the random effects model shows that the real minimum wage and tax burden positively affect informal employment in urban areas. In rural areas, the estimation using the Fixed effects method (and FGLS estimator) shows that real minimum wage, tax burden, and Gini coefficient positively affect informal employment. Furthermore, the interactive effect coefficient of real minimum wage considering the unemployment rate illustrates that in urban areas, the increase of unemployment rate increases the positive effect of real minimum wage. In rural areas, the increasing unemployment rate reduces the positive effect of the real minimum wage
Malihe Ashena; Hossein Sadeqi; Ghazal Shahpari
Abstract
Improving energy efficiency is one of the most important energy policies in many countries. This study mainly focused on the economic and environmental effects of energy efficiency improvements in Iran’s electricity sector on Iran’s economy using a computable general equilibrium framework. ...
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Improving energy efficiency is one of the most important energy policies in many countries. This study mainly focused on the economic and environmental effects of energy efficiency improvements in Iran’s electricity sector on Iran’s economy using a computable general equilibrium framework. Furthermore, the potential benefits of carbon reduction were explored. The results showed that the most significant change occurred in the sectoral output. Other macroeconomic variables, such as GDP and export, also showed higher levels. Accordingly, it can be asserted that a combination of energy policies, such as carbon pricing and revenue recycling, that are aimed at improving energy efficiency can potentially have positive effects on both the economy and the environment. Therefore, energy efficiency improvements can be considered a cost-effective alternative to promoting sustainable development.
Seyed Reza Nakhli; Monireh Rafat; Rasul Bakhshi Dastjerdi; Meysam Rafei
Abstract
Since the nationalization of the oil industry, especially after the 1979 revolution, Iran has always encountered economic sanctions. The oil embargo and international financial sanctions are the most severe sanctions imposed on Iran and have had significant effects on Iran’s macroeconomic variables. ...
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Since the nationalization of the oil industry, especially after the 1979 revolution, Iran has always encountered economic sanctions. The oil embargo and international financial sanctions are the most severe sanctions imposed on Iran and have had significant effects on Iran’s macroeconomic variables. The current study aimed to analyze the effects of economic sanctions on Iran’s macroeconomic variables using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model based on the new Keynesianapproach. The simulation results showed that the intensification of the oil and international financial sanctions would 1) reduce foreign and government investment, technology innovation,export in the oil sector, and consequently oil production, 2) lead to a higher exchange rate and a decrease in the ratio of the central bank foreign exchange reserves to the monetary base, 3)reduce the GDP and non-oil exports and increase the inflation, which may cause stagflation, 4) increase household consumption and decrease household investment, 5) increase budget deficit, forcing the government to adopt policies to raise current expenditures and maintain housing and urban developmentbudget, which, in turn, will lead to a budget deficit and bond sales. The analysis of various optimal monetary policies in the context of economic sanctions and considering the contingent business interruption (CBI) loss function showed that the optimal simple rule, in the form of the producer price index, targeting monetary policy, could reduce the loss function and increase the importance value of output coefficient in themonetary policy.
Tayebeh Nikraftar; Nazanin Falahati
Abstract
The aim of this paper was to investigate the processes of organizational innovation in medical tourism businesses. Specifically, this research aimed to answer: ―What is the process of developing medical tourism businesses in a developing country like Iran?‖ For this purpose, a grounded theory approach ...
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The aim of this paper was to investigate the processes of organizational innovation in medical tourism businesses. Specifically, this research aimed to answer: ―What is the process of developing medical tourism businesses in a developing country like Iran?‖ For this purpose, a grounded theory approach was used. In-depth interviews were conducted with fifteen medical tourism entrepreneurs who had experienced the above mentioned process. Analyzing the structure of values and interactions of entrepreneurs with others through their interviews led to the formation of an intermediate theory. The pattern obtained from this study shows that the main category that led to innovations among the studied medical tourism businesses was entrepreneurs’ tendency to create entrepreneurial activities, that is an innovative initiative. Based on our findings, should an innovative entrepreneur be affected by intermediate and environmental conditions, he or she introduces specific strategies to effectively carry out entrepreneurial activities that are discussed in this paper.
Seyyed Mohammad Ali Soozandehfar; Marzieh Souzandehfar
Abstract
This investigation is an endeavor to appraise the language of Resilient economy aiming at modeling it discursively for the first time in Iran. In this vein, postulating the thematic analysis proposed by Ary et al. (2010) as the analytical framework, this study integrated the concepts utilized in the ...
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This investigation is an endeavor to appraise the language of Resilient economy aiming at modeling it discursively for the first time in Iran. In this vein, postulating the thematic analysis proposed by Ary et al. (2010) as the analytical framework, this study integrated the concepts utilized in the discourse of Resilient economy extracted from various materials, articles, excerpts, interviews, and questionnaires through diverse qualitative techniques such as open, axial, and selective codifications. Moreover, to select a subset of common concepts and remove the redundant ones, factor analysis was applied as a quantitative technique. The findings elucidated two major theoretical views, i.e. macroscopic and microscopic. Macroscopic view accounts for the themes of history and philosophy behind Resilient economy, while microscopic view illuminates four themes of requirements, principles, objectives, and application procedures, which altogether comprised a model describing Resilient economy in the Iranian context. In the denouement, it was concluded that Resilient economy is the essence of Islamic and monotheistic economy where justice, fairness, democracy and knowledge shine as its premises, conducive to bolstering independence, flourish, innovation, entrepreneurship, and constant success and growth. Parenthetically, the study proposed some implications for economics teachers and discourse analysts at the end.
Afsaneh Kazemi Mehrabadi; Vahid Taghinezhad Omran; Mohammad Valipour Khatir; Saeed Rasekhi
Abstract
Forecasting industrial production is essential for efficient planning by managers. Although there are many statistical and mathematical methods for prediction, the use of intelligent algorithms with desirable features has made significant progress in recent years. The current study compared the accuracy ...
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Forecasting industrial production is essential for efficient planning by managers. Although there are many statistical and mathematical methods for prediction, the use of intelligent algorithms with desirable features has made significant progress in recent years. The current study compared the accuracy of the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Adaptive Nero-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) approaches to assess the current state and predict the future state of industrial production. The seasonal dataset comprised the labor force, capital stock, human capital, trade openness, liquidity and credit financing to the industrial sector as input variables and value added of industrial production as the output variable for the period of 1988 to 2018. The dataset was used to forecast industrial production for Seasons of the year 2019 and 2020. The results showed that, while both are appropriate tools for forecasting industrial production, ANFIS had a lower the Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) than ANN. The findings of the research indicate that ANFIS is more effective in forecasting industrial production, which can help policymakers in planning and creating an effective strategy for the future.
Hadi Keshavarz; Hojat Parsa
Abstract
This study aimed to examine the effects of monetary policy on macroeconomic variables with regard to the collateral constraint. For this purpose, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) was developed for Iran’s economic status. Two scenarios were considered as to account for the behavior ...
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This study aimed to examine the effects of monetary policy on macroeconomic variables with regard to the collateral constraint. For this purpose, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) was developed for Iran’s economic status. Two scenarios were considered as to account for the behavior of the central bank. In the first scenario, the monetary rule is modeled according to the GDP gap and inflation. In the second scenario that is modeled by macro-prudential rule, in addition to the GDP gap and inflation, it is also the central bank responses to the housing price gap that contributes to a steady state. An examination of the impulse response functions in the two scenarios indicated that the monetary shock increased production and inflation. A monetary shock has a positive impact on the consumption of patient households (lenders) and a negative effect on impatient households’ (borrowers) consumption. The collateral constraint was assumed to cause the effects of shocks to be continued on both groups. A comparison between the two scenarios indicated that if the central bank responds to the housing price deviation, in addition to the GDP gap and inflation, the effectiveness of the monetary policy will be strengthened.
Saeed Rasekhi; Zahra Sheidaei
Abstract
The aim of this article is to study the firm-level pricing behavior based on the firm’s competitive strategy through the exchange rate pass-through. Using Iranian export price microdata, we provide new empirical evidence on how firm’s exchange rate pass-through depends on firm’s strategic ...
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The aim of this article is to study the firm-level pricing behavior based on the firm’s competitive strategy through the exchange rate pass-through. Using Iranian export price microdata, we provide new empirical evidence on how firm’s exchange rate pass-through depends on firm’s strategic decisions of competition. After classifying firms in two groups based on their competitive strategies, we show that firms involving in strategic complements pass more exchange rate movements to export prices than firms with strategic substitutions. Furthermore, firms in strategic substitutions tend to increase their export volume significantly more than the firms in strategic complements as a result of the depreciation of exchange rate.
Sayed Yahya Abtahi; Elham Amrollahi Bioki
Abstract
This study was an attempt to analyze the dynamic reaction of the exchange market pressure (EMP) to different states of the foreign exchange market and inflation in the Iranian economy during 1988:4-2017:4. To this end, the EMP index was calculated using Edwards’s (2002) and Kumah’s (2007) ...
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This study was an attempt to analyze the dynamic reaction of the exchange market pressure (EMP) to different states of the foreign exchange market and inflation in the Iranian economy during 1988:4-2017:4. To this end, the EMP index was calculated using Edwards’s (2002) and Kumah’s (2007) formulae. By considering inflation as the threshold variable and using Threshold Vector Autoregressive (TVAR) model, the results showed that lagged variables had no significant effects on EMP in a low inflation regime, but inflation had significant effects on EMP in a high inflation regime. The results of using the Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive (MS-VAR) model showed that in EMP and INF equations, the autoregressive coefficients in all lags and in both regimes were significant; this emphasizes the stability of the estimated VAR model. Based on the results of the MS-VAR equations, the results of the Granger Causality Test showed that when the EMP switched to a high regime, the inflation would have a significant impact on the EMP, but in the regimes where the EMP was at a low level, the inflation was not the cause of the EMP. EMP in low inflation regimes could also affect inflation while EMP was not the cause of inflation in high inflation regimes. Therefore, the policymakers should note that increasing EMP, even in low inflation regimes, can lead to pressure on prices. On the other hand, an increase in the foreign reserves causes the EMP to switch to a high regime; then, the inflationary pressures at any level of the inflation rate can exacerbate the exchange market pressure, and policymakers would be unable to control the currency market. Thus, if the EMP is controlled, the effects of inflation on the EMP will be discontinued, and this is a key point for policymakers.
Ehsan Asadi; Hashem Zare; Mehrzad Ebrahimi; Khosrow Piraiee
Abstract
In this study, a model of Bayesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) from Real Business Cycles (RBC) approach with the aim of identifying the factors shaping price bubbles of Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) was specified. The above-mentioned model was conducted in two scenarios. In the first ...
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In this study, a model of Bayesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) from Real Business Cycles (RBC) approach with the aim of identifying the factors shaping price bubbles of Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) was specified. The above-mentioned model was conducted in two scenarios. In the first scenario, the baseline model with sentiment shock was examined. In this model, stock price bubbles appear endogenously in a positive feedback mechanism that is supported by people optimism. In the second scenario, only sentiment shock is absent from the model. According to the results obtained from the estimation of marginal likelihood model based on Laplace approximation, the baseline model is more in accord with Iran’s economic structure and real data. Consequently, the sentiment shock had a dominant role in creating stock price fluctuations and macroeconomic variables. Based on the results of variance decomposition model, sentiment shock was also recognized as the most important source of fluctuations in bubbles and subsequent fluctuations in stock prices. This shock reflected households’ beliefs about the approximate size of previous bubbles over the recent ones and was passed to the macroeconomic by credit constraints. In this way, this shock also described a major part of the fluctuation of consumption and output. Sentiment shock explained about 86% of stock price fluctuations, 47% of consumption fluctuations, and 39% of output fluctuations.
Parviz Rostamzadeh; Ali Hussein Samadi; Zeinab Yadegar
Abstract
Banking system is considered as one of the most important economic sectors of every country. Because of the dependency between the performances of different sectors in economy, instability in banking sector will lead to disorder in all the other economic sectors. Marketization can influence banking stability. ...
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Banking system is considered as one of the most important economic sectors of every country. Because of the dependency between the performances of different sectors in economy, instability in banking sector will lead to disorder in all the other economic sectors. Marketization can influence banking stability. The primary objective of the present study is to investigate the relationship between marketization and banking stability in Iran. This study investigates the effect of institutional quality on the relationship between marketization and banking stability. Accordingly, the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and Panel Threshold Regression (PTR) techniques were used to estimate the models. The results of GMM indicated a decrease in banking stability after marketization. An improvement in institutional quality, however, could improve the relationship between marketization and banking stability. The results obtained by the PTR analysis revealed that institutional quality had a threshold value which could affect the relationship between marketization and banking stability and led to different relationships between marketization and banking stability under different regimes
Mirhojjat NajafiNasab; Lotfali Agheli; Mônica Viegas Andrade; HOSSEIN SADEGHI; Sajjad Faraji Dizaji
Abstract
Health tourism is a profitable and competitive industry, which includes both medical and wellness tourism. This research intends to identify and analyze the determinants of medical tourism expansion in Iran. To this end, first, 384 questionnaires were distributed among medical tourists visiting selected ...
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Health tourism is a profitable and competitive industry, which includes both medical and wellness tourism. This research intends to identify and analyze the determinants of medical tourism expansion in Iran. To this end, first, 384 questionnaires were distributed among medical tourists visiting selected private hospitals in Tehran, and medical tourism experts in both private and public sectors in 2017. The data obtained from the questionnaires were analyzed using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). The price level had the greatest impact on attracting the medical tourists in 2017. The service and therapeutic capacities, and the characteristics of the destination ranked second and third, respectively. Marketing and public sector policy-making had positive but relatively small effects on attracting medical tourists to Iran. To compete with rival countries in attracting medical tourists, surgical operations should be presented efficiently. Private hospitals have to maintain their equipment and technology at the same level as those in the advanced countries. Furthermore, public and private sectors should spend more on advertising and marketing. Finally, in attracting more medical tourists, the role of public policy should be considered seriously.
Esmaiel Abounoori; Jamal Moumivand
Abstract
The main objective of this study is to analyze spillover fluctuations between inflation fluctuation and (un)employment fluctuation in relation to agriculture, industry and services sectors of Iran. In line with this, PANEL in Mean-MGARCH model has been used concerning Iran’s agriculture, industry ...
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The main objective of this study is to analyze spillover fluctuations between inflation fluctuation and (un)employment fluctuation in relation to agriculture, industry and services sectors of Iran. In line with this, PANEL in Mean-MGARCH model has been used concerning Iran’s agriculture, industry and services sectors over the period of time from spring 2002 to winter 2016. The results show that inflation fluctuations in each sector would spillover into the next period of all agriculture, industry and services sectors. (Un)employment fluctuations in each sector do not spillover into the next period of that sector or other sectors. The inflation and un(employment) fluctuations (conditional covariance) in each sector spillover into the joint inflation and un(employment) fluctuations of that sector and the other sectors.
Hossein Asgharpour; Elham Vafaei; Hamed Abdolmaleki
Abstract
The main objective of this paper is to investigate the asymmetric effects of exchangerate on Iranian import price index using quarterly time series data over the period 1990- 2011. For this purpose, positive and negative shocks of the exchange rate have been separated from each other using dummy variables ...
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The main objective of this paper is to investigate the asymmetric effects of exchangerate on Iranian import price index using quarterly time series data over the period 1990- 2011. For this purpose, positive and negative shocks of the exchange rate have been separated from each other using dummy variables and the effects of the size of the exchange rate shocks by determining a threshold.The empirical results indicate that the positive and negative shocks of the exchange rate both have positive and asymmetric effects on the import price index. The results show that the effects of negative shocks of the exchange rate on the imports price index is more than the positive shocks effect. In addition, the experimental findings of the research indicate that the effect of foreign exchange rate shocks size on the imports price is asymmetric and the effectiveness extent of smaller shocks is significantly more than that of bigger exchange rate shocks.Moreover, according to the results, the effects of positive and negative shocks based on the size of foreign exchange shocks (small & big) on the imports price is asymmetric and the results show that the effect of small negative shocks is more than big ones and also the effects of small positive shocks is more than big ones.
Zakariya Farajzadeh; Abdoulkarim Esmaeili
Abstract
Food products account for a significant amount of the Iranian imports. Despite the rising prices of food products over the last two decades, their imports have been increasing too. In this study import demand of the main imported food products is empirically analyzed using Quadratic AIDS. Welfare impacts ...
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Food products account for a significant amount of the Iranian imports. Despite the rising prices of food products over the last two decades, their imports have been increasing too. In this study import demand of the main imported food products is empirically analyzed using Quadratic AIDS. Welfare impacts are measured using compensated variation. The results indicate that all products, except tea and cheese are own price inelastic. In general, price response of food imports is found low. Rising prices of the products as high as their trend over the last two decades has resulted in an annual welfare loss of 2.2 percent.
Majid Feshari
Abstract
The ICT is one of the main determinant factors of e-commerce industry such as tourism industry in developing countries like Iran. For this purpose, the main objective of this paper is to investigate the long-run relationship between ICT indices such as internet users, government expenditures on ICT to ...
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The ICT is one of the main determinant factors of e-commerce industry such as tourism industry in developing countries like Iran. For this purpose, the main objective of this paper is to investigate the long-run relationship between ICT indices such as internet users, government expenditures on ICT to the GDP and mobile cellular in Iranian economy during the 1976-2014. The empirical model has been estimated by applying FMOLS co-integrating method as a sophisticated econometric methodology. The results of empirical results indicate that there is a long-run relationship between ICT indices and tourism demand indicators like number of tourist arrival in Iran. Moreover, the other explanatory variables such as living cost, real exchange rate and behavioral habit have negative and positive effects on the tourism demand respectively. The investment of government in ICT indices such as improving the share of ICT expenditures in GDP and enhancing the ICT quality are the important policy implications of this study
Hojat Izadkhasti; rahim dalali isfahani; saeed samadi
Abstract
The net effects of switching from consumption taxation to inflation taxation on resource allocation and welfare crucially depend on production externalities. With elastic labor supply, raising inflation taxation decreases leisure, but increases the levels of real consumption, capital, and output. Moreover, ...
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The net effects of switching from consumption taxation to inflation taxation on resource allocation and welfare crucially depend on production externalities. With elastic labor supply, raising inflation taxation decreases leisure, but increases the levels of real consumption, capital, and output. Moreover, this tax switch has two opposing effects on the level of real money balances: A positive effect through the rise in output caused by the faster nominal money growth and a negative one through the fall in the ratio of real money balances to output. In the absence of any production, externality the negative effect dominates the positive effect. The real effect of this tax switching on resource allocation depends on the behavior of labor supply. If there is not a trade-off between leisure and labor supply, then the real effect of switching to inflaction taxation on real consumption, capital and output would disappear. With elasticity of labor supply, the welfare effect of this tax switch is conditional on the production externality. In the absence of production externality, inflation taxation always reduces welfare. With a strong enough production externality, switching from consumption taxation to inflation taxation may raise welfare by correcting the under-investment of capital and the under-supply of labor.
Hassan Heidari; ahmad molabahrami
Abstract
In this study, we use a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model to investigate the household portfolio channel of monetary and credit shocks transmission in Iran. In this regard, we developed a canonical New Keynesian DSGE model with financial and banking sectors. The model is estimated by ...
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In this study, we use a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model to investigate the household portfolio channel of monetary and credit shocks transmission in Iran. In this regard, we developed a canonical New Keynesian DSGE model with financial and banking sectors. The model is estimated by Bayesian method for the period 1990-2012. The result showed that the current and expected prices of financial and physical assets affected their optimal proportions in household portfolio. Second, banking sector had a significant impact on the household portfolio composition and also on the real sector variables. More specifically, a positive deposit rate shock reduced the proportions of financial and physical assets in household portfolio and increased marginal cost and inflation. This shock decreased investment and output. Third, a positive shock on stock price had negative effects on demand for other assets in household portfolio but these effects were discharged rapidly. Moreover, the housing price shock had similar effects on demand for mentioned assets but the effects were discharged slowly. The results emphasized the role of credit, banking and assets markets sectors in financial fluctuation, business cycles and monetary transmission in Iran.
